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Title:
Energy and emission monitoring for policy use. Trend analysis with reconstructed energy balances
 
Author(s):
 
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1-7-2004
 
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-RX--04-109 Article (scientific)
 
Number of pages:
0  

Published in: Energy Policy (Elsevier), , 2004, Vol.32, p.969-988.

Abstract:

For the presentation and analysis of historical energy and emission trends a tool, called MONIT, has been developed. The MONIT system uses energy balances, with about 20 sectors and all relevant energy carriers, for the period from 1982 on. The energy related CO2-emissions are also covered.

In the presentation part the statistical figures are converted into a balance with corrections for disruptions in trends and other adaptations, and into a balance with corrections for yearly climate variations. Via a menu-based retrieval system, time series are given for all combinations of energy variables and sectors. Information is also available about the final demand for electricity or heat, co-generation, primary energy use, direct and indirect CO2-emissions and energy intensities.

In the analysis part the energy use developments are mapped with a set of constructed energy balances. The actual balance for a chosen year is step-by-step reconstructed, starting from the base year balance. In this way the actual changes in energy use are unravelled into 14 different explanatory factors: GDP-growth, energy-related structural changes in end-use and energy sectors, savings on final demand and conversion in end-use sectors, co-generation in end-use and energy sectors, fuel mix changes, more efficient power stations and changes in export and import of energy.


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