The Reference Projection 2010-2020 examines the future development of Dutch energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution up to 2020. The Reference projection is based on assumptions regarding economic, structural, technological and policy developments.
With regard to the latter, the “Schoon en Zuinig” (Clean and Efficient) policy programme for energy and climate, introduced in 2007, plays an important role. According to Schoon en Zuinig, greenhouse gas emissions have to be reduced by 30% in 2020 compared to 1990; the annual energy efficiency improvement has to increase to 2% and the target share of renewable energy production in total consumption in 2020 is 20%. To assess the effects of the policy measures from the Schoon en Zuinig policy programme, the Reference projection explores three policy variants: one without policies introduced after 2007, one including only post-2007 policies that are already fixed, and one including proposed policy measures as well. Here, policies refer to Dutch as well as to European policies.
The results indicate that the climate and energy targets will not be reached with the current instruments. Including proposed policy measures, the estimated greenhouse gas reduction will amount to 16-24% relative to 1990, the renewable energy share will rise to 13-16% and the annual energy efficiency improvement between 2011 and 2020 will amount to between 1.1 and 1.6%.
European targets for greenhouse gas emissions can be reached, especially in the case of implementation of the proposed policies. As for renewable energy, the implementation of proposed policies is imperative for attaining the target, but likely to be insufficient.
Current European targets for air pollutants are within reach. 2020 emission levels of most air pollutants are lower than the current 2010 National Emission Ceilings, with the exception of ammonia, where there is a substantial chance that the 2020 emissions will exceed the 2010 ceiling. However, ceilings are likely to become more stringent towards 2020.