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Title:
Prospects for energy technology in the Netherlands: vol. 1:evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of energy technologies undera range of long term future conditions
 
Author(s):
 
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1995
 
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-C--95-002 ECN publication
 
Number of pages: Full text:
112 Download PDF  (11317kB)

Abstract:
The SYRENE programme (SYstems integration of Renewable and End-use energytechnologies in the NEtherlands) aims to provide a contribution to the programming of the Netherlands Agency for Energy and the Environment (NOVEM). In this study a technology evaluation was carried out using the technology data of technology assessments which have been performed within the SYRENE programme. These data concern the expected future performance, costs and technical potentials of energy technologies, extensively described elsewhere. The technology evaluation for the energy system of the Netherlands was executed by configuring energy systems for the time period 2000-2040 with a cost-minimizing model of the national energy system (MARKAL). Sixty scenario cases have been constructed in which parameters, such as energy price projections, future policy for CO2 emission reduction and societal development of technologies are varied. The role and the cost-effectiveness of approximately 200 existing, improved and new energy technologies have been analyzed for these scenario cases. It appeared that the cost-effectiveness of many energy technologies in the future energy system is sensitive to the assumptions for future conditions. The energy technologies have been categorized as robust, critical or less relevant on the base of the scenario calculations. Robust technologies play an important role in the majority of scenario cases and they are not immediately or generally phased out with increasing CO2 emission reductions. A second group of technologies that has been identified are the critical technologies, playing a vital role in at least one of the sets of cases with CO2 emission reduction of 20% or more, or playing a role in the majority of cases with more ambitious CO2 reduction targets. Moreover, their critical nature implies that they are difficult to substitute. Finally, a group of technologies has been identified which seem less relevant to play a role in the future energy system of the Netherlands. 40 figs., 20 tabs., 22 refs.


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