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Title:
Het SAVE-model: de modellering van energieverbruiksontwikkelingen.
 
Author(s):
 
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1-12-1994
 
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-C--94-076 ECN publication
 
Number of pages: Full text:
104 Download PDF  (10828kB)

Abstract:
The acronym SAVE stands for Simulation and Analyses of Virtual use in Energy scenarios. SAVE will be used for the analysis of future energy savings possibilities for end users, in conjunction with volume growth and structural changes in the socio-economic system, e.g. shifts in the production patterns, changes in ownership of household appliances or a different composition of the building stock or the vehicle fleet. The model contains different modules for production (industry, agriculture and construction), buildings (services and government), households and transportation (persons or goods). Within the module one can discern the hierarchical levels sector, segment and function, Sectors comprise a part of the economy; segments are specific subsectors chosen with regard to energy aspects. Energy use in a segment is split up into a number of functions (e.g. morn heating, the production of fertilizer or the transportation of goods); to each function one or more savings measures can be attached. Decisions on the penetration of saving measures are in principle based on cost/benefit ratios. For greeter industrial users the Internal rate of return (IRR) on investments in savings are compared with the return on alternative investments. For small users, especially households, a distinction is made with more efficient appliances between state-of-the-art, new-but-proven and advanced options. In the analysis allowance is made for subsidies, the financial room for investments, tariff structures and taxes, the relative importance of energy cost, institutional factors and standards for houses, buildings or appliances. In deciding about the penetration of savings options care is taken of the competition between different options. With the energy-intensive production processes the analysis also directs itself at the possibilities for wholly new production alternatives. The amount of savings and the costs are based on the ICARUS-database on energy saving measures, translated to the SAVE-format. To calculate future energy use a great deal of inputs are needed on socio-economic factors and energy prices, socio-demographic factors and lifestyle, physical factors, technical factors and policy factors. The results of SAVE comprise:

  • final energy use for 5 case years till 2015;
  • devefopment of primary energy use;
  • the effects of growth, structural changes and savings on the development of the calculeted future energy use;
  • penetration of all the saving options and associated costs;
  • the energy use mutation due to individual structural changes or saving measures, dependent on the ranking of these measures.


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