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Title:
Actualisering NEV-scenario's: Effecten van lagere prijzen, Elektriciteitsplan en NMP.
 
Author(s):
 
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1990
 
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-C--90-032 ECN publication
 
Number of pages: Full text:
76 Download PDF  (2685kB)

Abstract:
In 1987 a National Energy Outlook (NEV) was completed which contained a set of three energy scenarios describing a range of plausible developments of the Dutch energy sector up to the year 2010. For each scenario three policy cases were developed, in which the degree of fuel diversification was different. These were named the nuclear, coal and gas cases, indicating the central role of the respective energy carriers in each case. The goal of the National Energy Outlook 1987 was to analyse the economic and environmental consequenses of the different scenarios and cases in order to provide energy policy makers with strategie information for policy purposes. After publication of the NEV-results a number of changes in the energy field have taken place. These comprise among others lower expected fuel prices and dollar to Dutch guilder exchange rates, different subsidy schemes for conservation and energy conservation and energy conversion investments and an update of the policy formulated earlier for public power production. Another most important issue was the presentation in 1989 of the National Environmental Policy Plan (NMP in Dutch). The NMP-policy aimes at decreasing the (growth of) emissions of SO2, NOx and CO2 by more conservation, less growth of car-use, etc. These changes were accounted for in an update of the NEV. The update is restricted to the Medium scenario, without the nuclear case for the year 2000. The results however cannot be used as a new set of scenarios because some other developments have not been accounted for in this study. The economic developments in the scenarios have not been updated despite recent deviations from the NEV-trends and structural changes because of the NMP-path to a sustainable world. Results have heen obtained about end-use energy demand, electricity production, fuel diversification and total emissions of SO2, NOx and CO2. Total Energy Use decreases 7-9% compared to the NEV-results; SO2- and NOx-emissions decrease more than 50% while stabilisation for the CO2-emission in 2000 at the level of today is reached.


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