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The implications of technological learning on the prospects of specific renewable energy technologies in Europe
Uyterlinde, M.A.; Vries, H.J. de; Junginger, H.M.
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 1-5-2005
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-RX--05-130 Artikel wetenschap tijdschrift
Aantal pagina's:

Gepubliceerd in: 'Learning in renewable energy technology development' (thesisby Hans Martin Junginger), Chapter 7, pp 141-167, Utrecht (), , , Vol., p.-.

The objective of this chapter is to examine the impact of technological learning on the diffusion of specific renewable energy technologies into the electricity market of the EU-25 until 2020, using a market simulation model (ADMIRE REBUS). It is assumed that from 2012 a harmonized trading system for renewable energy certificates will be implemented. Also it is assumed that a target of 24% renewable electricity (RES-E) in 2020 is set and met. By comparing optimistic and pessimistic endogenous technological learning scenarios, it is found that the diffusion of onshore wind energy into the market is relatively robust, regardless of technological development. However the diffusion rates of offshore wind energy and biomass gasification greatly depend on their technological development. Competition between these two options and already existing biomass combustion options largely determines the overall costs of electricity from renewables and the choice of technologies for the individual member countries. In the optimistic learning scenario, in 2020 the market price for RES-E is 1 ?ct/kWh lower than in the pessimistic scenario (about 7 vs. 8 ?ct/kWh). As a result, the total expenditures for RES-E market stimulation are 30% lower in the optimistic scenario. For comparison, instead of introducing a harmonized trading system, also continuation of present policies to support renewables was evaluated, assuming that the member states of the EU can fulfil their ambition levels only by exploiting their domestic renewable energy potentials (i.e. exclusion of international trade). This would require many member states to use their offshore wind potential, making the diffusion of offshore wind much less dependent on both the rate of technological learning and competition from biomass options, compared to the harmonization policy scenario.

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