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Titel:
Probabilistic cost model for analysis of offshore wind energy costs and potential
 
Auteur(s):
 
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Windenergie 1-5-2002
 
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-I--02-007 Overig
 
Aantal pagina's: Volledige tekst:
47 Download PDF  (1027kB)

Samenvatting:
A computer program named OWECOP (Offshore Wind Energy Cost and Potential)has been developed by ECN in order to quantify the energy production costs of offshore wind energy. This program couples a Geographic Information System (GIS database) with an ExcelTM workbook. This report describes a probabilistic analysis implemented into the OWECOP cost model. Therefore the @RISK software package for probabilistic analyses is implemented into the Excel workbook of OWECOP. The cost model obtained bears the name OWECOP-Prob. Some typical results of the OWECOP-Prob model are: probabilistic distribution functions (PDF) for the energy yield, PDF?s for overall offshore wind energy implementation costs and tornado diagrams showing the relative influence of the uncertain parameters. These results are obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. After an introduction, chapter 2 of this report presents the deterministic and the probabilistic input parameters of the OWECOP-Prob model. In chapter 3 the different probabilistic distributions used are described. In chapter 4, the integration of the probabilistic cost model into OWECOP is presented. An evaluation of the results is given in chapter 5 and some graphs obtained with the model are shown. The conclusions and recommendations are given in chapter 5.4.


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