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Titel:
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The role of fusion power in energy scenarios: proposed method and review of existing scenarios
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Auteur(s):
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Gepubliceerd door:
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Publicatie datum:
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ECN
Beleidsstudies
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1998
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ECN publicatienummer:
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Publicatie type:
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ECN-C--98-009
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ECN rapport
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Aantal pagina's:
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Volledige tekst:
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33
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Download PDF
(1279kB)
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Samenvatting:
The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role offusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several
scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term
Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy
system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long
term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role
of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations
for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the
long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological
innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with
climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on
the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key
parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand,
availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount
rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of
fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate
of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be
performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation
model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly
introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear
under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and
how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report
also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the
role of fusion power. 18 refs.
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