An energy model for Western Europe has been constructed based on theMARKAL (MARKet ALlocations) model to analyze future development of CO2
emissions from Western Europe and the possibilities to limit these emissions
with technological measures. Two baseline scenarios for Western Europe are
described for the period 1990 to 2050 which have clear differences in
orientation of economic production and assumptions with respect to criteria
for making energy investment decisions. The differences in points of
departure result in distinctly different base levels of CO2 emissions ranging
from almost stable CO2 emissions to a continuous growth. Several cases with a
range of CO2 emission taxes have also been calculated to identify
cost-effective strategies for CO2 emission reduction and to assess the
potential contribution of energy technologies and sectors to CO2 reduction.
It appears that energy efficiency improvements have the highest potential to
contribute to CO2 emission reduction. Fossil fuel switching and nuclear
energy are relatively cost-effective ways to reduce CO2 emissions. The
contribution of renewables to CO2 reduction is relatively small with low CO2
taxes but it is substantial with high CO2 tax levels. 17 refs.
Terug naar overzicht.