ECN publicatie: facebook
Titel:
Long-term electricity supply systems dynamics. A historic analysis
 
Auteur(s):
Scheepers, M.J.J.; Verbong, G.; Vleuten, E. van der
 
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 1-10-2002
 
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-C--02-084 ECN rapport
 
Aantal pagina's: Volledige tekst:
40 Download PDF  (339kB)

Samenvatting:
In this report we have developed a general historical model for thedevelopment of national and European electricity supply systems. Our main thesis is that the critical problems of each era are formulated against the realities of the preceding era. Changing existing systems however is difficult, because of a technical, network related path dependency (contained within the existing electricity supply system) and a social, actor related path dependency.

We have also identified the main factors and drivers behind this process. For this purpose we have used a multi-level model, developed for analysing complex processes of socio-technical change. Each national electricity supply system can be described along four dimensions: the material infrastructure, the institutional framework, the fuel mix and the national (energy) political agenda. The major external or macro factors are: economic development, energy prices, technological development, the general drive for liberalisation, European integration, environmentalism and ?Events?. The European electricity supply system will also have a major impact on the development of national systems. Finally some implications for scenario development have been given.


Terug naar overzicht.