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Titel:
A sensitivity analysis of timing and costs of greenhouse gas emission reductions under learning effects and niche markets. A study with DEMETER
 
Auteur(s):
Zwaan, B.C.C. van der; Gerlagh, R.
 
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 1-8-2002
 
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-C--02-067 ECN rapport
 
Aantal pagina's: Volledige tekst:
28 Download PDF  (576kB)

Samenvatting:
This paper analyses the optimal timing and macro-economic costs of carbonemission reductions that mitigate the global average atmospheric temperature increase. We use a macro-economic model in which there are two competing energy sources, fossil-fuelled and non-fossil-fuelled. Technological change is represented endogenously through learning curves, and niche markets exist implying positive demand for the relatively expensive non-fossil-fuelled energy source. Under these conditions, early abatement is found to be an optimal strategy. The costs of this strategy prove to be low. We perform an extensive sensitivity analysis of our results regarding the uncertainties that dominate various economic and technological modelling parameters. Uncertainties in the learning rate and the elasticity of substitution between the two different energy sources most significantly affect the robustness of our findings.


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