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Titel:
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Solar thermal power technologies. Monograph in the framework of the VLEEM Project
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Auteur(s):
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Gepubliceerd door:
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Publicatie datum:
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ECN
Beleidsstudies
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1-7-2002
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ECN publicatienummer:
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Publicatie type:
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ECN-C--02-062
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ECN rapport
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Aantal pagina's:
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Volledige tekst:
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50
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Download PDF
(551kB)
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Samenvatting:
Existing long-term energy-environment models provide reliable scenarioprojections on energy demand and supply and related environmental consequences,
under three conditions:
- Unknown technologies cannot play a significant role, neither in
energy demand, nor in energy supply, and neither in environmental consequences,
under the time horizon envisaged.
- Entirely new and unknown behaviour and preferences of individuals
cannot play a significant role, neither in energy demand, nor in energy
supply, under the time horizon envisaged.
- There is no major rupture in the socio-economic system development
under the time horizon envisaged, such as wars, major energy supply
physical shortage, climate disasters, etc.
These conditions usually limit the time horizon in which scenario projections
are reliable to a maximum of 25 years, i.e. the time necessary for a
scientific breakthrough, or the period of time between two demographic
generations. Beyond 25 years starts the 'very long term', in which period
most models become increasingly less reliable as the time horizon enlarges.
But the new challenges related to climate change, depletable resources
of fossil fuels, the management of nuclear waste and the agenda for
the development of the technologies necessary to face these challenges
require the consideration of these issues up to 50 years or more in
advance.
Since the range of possibilities in the very long term
is totally open, it is important not to describe this range, but to
describe the possibilities that fit within a set of overall constraints
imposed on the overall system in the very long term. Instead of exploring
and formalising the various causalities on the basis of our knowledge
of the past, it is necessary to describe and formalise the association
of causalities necessary for bringing the system from the present situation
to the targeted future, through a 'back-casting' approach.
The
VLEEM project has been organised according to two fields of research:
technology and socio-economic development and one horizontal field of
research, i.e. modelling. The technology development research programme
has focussed on a selected number of new and innovative energy supply
and demand technologies for which monographs have been compiled first.
This report discusses the status of different Solar Thermal
Power technologies (STP). The statuses of the different technologies
are presented from a rather technological point of view. The report
serves as monograph document for very long modelling exercise in the
VLEEM project, ECN project number 7.7372. This study focuses on global
energy supply and demand until 2100. It is difficult to make predictions
about the development of these technologies for such a timeframe. Because
the VLEEM project focuses on technical options, this monograph pays
attention to the expected breakthrough year of 'new' power production
facilities, geographical spread, energy payback ratios and land, water
and material needs.
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