ECN publicatie:
Titel:
What scenario studies tell about security of energy supply in Europe
 
Auteur(s):
Lako, P.; Jansen, J.C.
 
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 1-6-2001
 
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-C--01-054 ECN rapport
 
Aantal pagina's: Volledige tekst:
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Samenvatting:
On behalf of the Dutch General Energy Council (AER) ECN Policy studiesperformed a brief technical fact-finding study on security of energy supply from the European point of view and from the point of view of the Netherlands, as a background to the draft Green Paper on European energy supply security by the European Commission. In this study a brief assessment is presented of fossil fuel resources. Based on data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other literature, the reserves/production ratio of conventional and unconventional oil is estimated at approximately 200 years. Based on the same USGS data, the reserves/production ratio of conventional natural gas is estimated at 190 years. The unconventional gas resources are extremely large. However, environmental damage has to be prevented. The amount of recoverable resources will remain a question mark for the time being. The world is proved recoverable coal reserves amount to a reserves/production ratio of 230 years. All in all, oil remains a strategic fossil fuel, whereas the supply of natural gas seems to be more well-balanced and the supply of coal is more secure than both of oil and gas. The so-called Shared analysis project, performed by a number of research institutes in the EU, gives useful points of departure for energy policy formulation. However, the results of notably the reference scenario and to a lesser extent its variants in terms of primary energy use, CO2 emissions, and the EU's import dependence for fossil fuels have to be regarded carefully. A similar picture arises from IEA's World Energy Outlook 2000. The Outlook gives due attention to OECD Europe's dependence on imported oil and gas. The share of oil imports is due to rise from 32% in 1990 to 80% in 2020. Due to a projected steady growth of gas consumption, import dependence with respect to natural gas is due to rise from 34% in 1997 to about 65% in 2020. In the scenarios developed by CPB, in collaboration with AVV, ECN, and RIVM, in 1997, the share of natural gas in total primary energy demand is projected to increase to 50-55% in all of the scenarios. In the most energy intensive scenarios, natural gas is very dominant, both in PJ and in relative terms. In the related ECN study it is argued that a too strong focus on gas-fired power incurs risks of security of supply, due to ongoing depletion of indigenous gas resources. Finally, a few main themes from the Green Paper are highlighted, viz.:

  • Controlling the growth of demand. Fiscal interventions in energy prices should remove distortions between alternative energy carriers and between Member States and make that energy prices will reflect real costs including environmental damage costs.
  • Managing supply dependence. New renewables should be vigorously stimulated. In particular for natural gas geographical diversification of supply would appear desirable, especially as far as LNG is concerned. Funding research on civil nuclear technology should be continued. A minimum coal production platform should be maintained.
A technical fact-finding study on security of energy supply has been performed from the European point of view and from the point of view of the Netherlands. A brief assessment is presented of fossil fuel resources. Based on data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other literature, the reserves/production ratio of conventional and unconventional oil is estimated at approximately 200 years. Based on the same USGS data, the reserves/production ratio of conventional natural gas is estimated at 190 years. The unconventional gas resources are extremely large. However, environmental damage has to be prevented. The amount of recoverable resources will remain a question mark for the time being. The world's proved recoverable coal reserves amount to a reserves/production ratio of 230 years. All in all, oil remains a strategic fossil fuel, whereas the supply of natural gas seems to be more well-balanced and the supply of coal is more secure than both of oil and gas. The so-called Shared analysis project, performed by a number of research institutes in the EU, gives useful points of departure for energy policy formulation. However, the results of notably the reference scenario and to a lesser extent its variants in terms of primary energy use, CO2 emissions, and the EU's import dependence for fossil fuels have to be regarded carefully. A similar picture arises from IEA's World Energy Outlook 2000. The 'Out-look' gives due attention to OECD Europe's dependence on imported oil and gas. The share of oil imports is due to rise from 32% in 1990 to 80% in 2020. Due to a projected steady growth of gas consumption, import dependence with respect to natural gas is due to rise from 34% in 1997 to about 65% in 2020. In the scenarios developed by CPB, in collaboration with AVV, ECN, and RIVM, in 1997, the share of natural gas in total primary energy demand is projected to increase to 50-55% in all of the scenarios. In the most energy intensive scenarios, natural gas is very dominant, both in PJ and in relative terms. In the related ECN study it is argued that a too strong focus on gas-fired power incurs risks of security of supply, due to ongoing depletion of indigenous gas resources. Finally, a few main themes from the Green Paper are highlighted, viz.: Controlling the growth of demand. Fiscal interventions in energy prices should remove distortions between alternative energy carriers and between Member States and make that energy prices will reflect real costs including environmental damage costs; and Managing supply dependence. New renewables should be vigorously stimulated. In particular for natural gas geographical diversification of supply would appear desirable, especially as far as LNG is concerned. Funding research on civil nuclear technology should be continued. A minimum coal production platform should be maintained. 23 refs.


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