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Potentiëlen en kosten van broeikasgasreductie in binnen- en buitenland : een samenvattende analyse
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 1-3-2000
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-C--00-015 ECN rapport
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The results of several Dutch studies conducted by the Netherlands EnergyResearch Foundation (ECN) on behalf of the Ministry of Economic Affairs (EZ), the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM) and the Directorate-General for International Cooperation (DGIS) at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (BZ), are compared and combined in this report: (1) a Joint Implementation or JI study (Joint Implementation met Midden- en Oost-Europa; mogelijkheden en beperkingen bij de realisatie van de Nederlandse CO2-reductiedoelstellingen in de periode 2000-2010; October 1997); (2) the Option Document (Optiedocument voor emissiereductie van broeikasgassen; Inventarisatie in het kader van de Uitvoeringsnota Klimaatbeleid; October 1998); and a Clean Development Mechanism or CDM study (Potential and Cost of Clean Development Mechanism options in the energy sector; Inventory of options in non-Annex I countries to reduce GHG emissions; December 1999). The aim of the above studies was to assess the potential and costs of greenhouse gas reduction options in Central and Eastern Europe (JI study), in the Netherlands (Optiedocument) and in the non-Annex I countries (CDM study). The total identified reduction potential in the year 2010, at a price of US$ 50 per ton CO2 or lower in Central and Eastern Europe and in the non-Annex I countries, amounts to approximately 4.4 Gton CO2 equivalent. This is more than enough to meet the total required reduction of OECD countries of 2.4 Gton CO2 equivalent resulting from the Kyoto agreement. Roughly 36% of the identified potential in non-Annex I countries and Central and Eastern Europe is projected to be achievable at negative or zero incremental costs (no regret options). The identified potential in the Netherlands in this price range is approximately 55 Mton CO2 equivalent for all reduction options and approximately 40 Mton for the CO2 related options. The price that buyers may have to pay for obtaining reduction units abroad may differ from the costs to realise these units. The demand-supply analysis suggests that a full scale implementation of CDM and JI will result in a clearing price of a reduction unit of USD 4 per ton CO2 if the no regret options (options which are profitable to a firm or a country as a whole) are included and of USD 15 per ton CO2 if the no regret options are excluded (no decision has been taken yet on whether no regret options are eligible for consideration in the CDM or JI). However, these results are subject to some shortcomings and limitations and should therefore be interpreted cautiously. The results of the ECN-studies are based on the technology bottom-up approach. In addition to the bottom-up approach, macro-economic top-down models can provide useful insight into the indirect and secondary effects and into the interactions between the sectors and, at a global scale, between the various parties. Several top-down models have been reviewed and it can be concluded that the results do not differ significantly from the results obtained from the bottom- up models. 6 refs.

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