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Development of long-term energy scenarios for the Czech Republic
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 1-12-1999
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-C--99-009 ECN rapport
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The Czech Government faces important decisions that will have a largeimpact on future energy supply and demand. These decisions need to be taken in the preparation of the Energy Policy Document of the Czech Republic, which is on-going at the moment (July 1999). For the preparation of the new Energy Policy Document, ECN Policy Studies performed the study "Development of integrated energy-environment scenarios for the Czech Republic". Main aim was to provide policy makers insight in the impacts of key policy decisions in Czech energy policy in the next 35 years. The study was carried out in the scope of the EU Synergy Programme. Additional support was obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Czech Ministry of Environment, the Czech union of employers in the power and heat sector, the Czech union of employers in the coal and oil sector and the Czech gas union.

To deal with the many uncertainties within a transition economy, a scenario approach was chosen as the basis of the analysis. Because the integration into the EU is a key political objective in the Czech Republic, three EU scenarios were used as the starting point to develop scenarios for the Czech Republic. The EU scenarios provide quantitative time-series on a wide range of macro-economic indicators for the EU as a whole, like the price of oil and gas on the world market, the economic growth within Europe, general technological innovation, and labour and capital productivity. On the basis of the EU-scenarios, a further translation of quantitative and qualitative macro-economic scenario indicators to the Czech Republic was made.

The modelling system that was used for the analysis has two components. The macro-economic analysis and the calculation of the future energy demand were carried out with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Czech Republic. The Energy Flow Optimisation Model (EFOM-ENV) was used to analyse the optimal energy supply and demand system.

Key issues and case studies
The key policy decisions to be taken include the future role of domestic coal production, (de-) commissioning of nuclear power capacity, increase of natural gas imports, the future of CHP production and the implementation of an energy tax. Each of these issues could induce large effects on employment, environmental emissions, energy efficiency and import dependency. To support the policy making process the study focused on the following aspects:

Development of energy demand: Expected development of energy demand in the period 2000-2030, incorporating the impact of economic restructuring, price increases and fuel shifts. The future role of domestic coal production: Analysis of the impact of abolishing current regional and environmental restrictions on domestic coal mining. The future role of nuclear power: Decommissioning of the existing Dukovany nuclear power plant around the year 2015, Finalisation of the new 2000 MW Temelin nuclear power plant and the impact of a complete nuclear phase-out. The imports of natural gas: Growth of natural gas imports and the consequences of replacing domestic coal mining and nuclear power with gas imports. Development of environmental emissions. Estimated abatement and saving potentials, consequences of the Kyoto target and the impact of implementing a CO2 tax. Renewable energy production: Identification of the cost-effective potential of renewable energy production, effect of CO2 tax on the share of renewables. Combined heat and power production: Identification of the cost-effective potential of CHP production, estimation of energy efficiency increases due to use of CHP.

Main results
Average annual GDP growth could range between 2 and 3% in the Czech Republic in the period 2000-2030. If sufficient cost-effective energy measures are taken, the corresponding growth in primary and final energy demand could be much lower, due to the increase in supply and demand efficiency, and the fuel shift from coal to natural gas. The economic potential of end-use energy savings is around 20% of total primary energy demand in the period 2000-2030.

The share of coal will decrease strongly, mainly to be replaced by natural gas imports and nuclear power. If coal-mining restrictions are not abolished, the available domestic hard coal and brown coal production capacities reduce to 30 million tons in 2030. Otherwise, the domestic coal production capacity will be 43.5 million tons in 2030.

Gas imports will increase between 1.5 and 3% per year between 2000 and 2030. The highest growth is witnessed in the case with complete nuclear phase-out and continuation of the current regional coal mining restriction. Large increases in gas imports means that diversification of supplier should have high priority. Gas-fired combined cycle becomes the dominant technology in CHP production. The long-term cost-effective potential of CHP production is around 35% of total electricity production.

Prolonging the lifetime of the Dukovany nuclear power plant and commissioning the Temelin nuclear power plant as planned will increase the share of nuclear power in public power production to around 50%.

If all cost-effective measures are implemented, the Kyoto target of 8% reduction of CO2 emissions in 2010 compared to 1990 could be met without large difficulties. On a longer term, CO2 emissions can remain at a more-or-less constant level compared to 1995. Renewable energy could gain a market share of 4% in 2010 and 7% in 2030 if appropriate policy measures are taken to tackle market barriers. Energy taxation would in the long-run double end-use prices and largely increase energy efficiency. The impact on promotion of renewable energy is only small, because of limited potentials and limited cost-effectiveness.

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