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Titel:
Nieuwe apparaten en leefstijl: gevolgen voor het huishoudelijk elektriciteitsverbruik in 2010
 
Auteur(s):
 
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 1-4-1998
 
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-C--98-011 ECN rapport
 
Aantal pagina's: Volledige tekst:
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Samenvatting:
ECN Policy Studies in cooperation with Van Holsteijn and Kemna hascarried out a study to investigate the possible trends in utilisation and ownership of domestic appliances, more specifically new or renewed types of appliances, in the Netherlands. An estimate of the consequences of life-style trends for future energy use is also made. It is important that policy makers have an indication of the range in development of domestic energy consumption. The robustness of specific trends in energy use can be helpful in setting priorities for energy saving policies. First, the interaction between technological development and consumer behaviour is assessed by screening several theoretical concepts as well as examining empirical evidence. Subsequently, actual robust trends in consumer technology and life-styles are investigated and assessed in terms of likely consequences for developments in ownership and use of such new appliances in addition to residential electricity consumption. The assessment of the development of future electricity consumption depends on historical trends and on the type of model used. Therefore, the historical development of domestic electricity consumption is analysed. The objective of this analysis is to identify the factors which determine the development of residential electricity consumption. Also the methods and results of some forecasting studies in the Netherlands are compared. The range of the development of domestic electricity use is assessed by varying a number of model parameters such as growth of GDP, energy prices and efficiency improvement. Special attention is paid to the interaction between life-style trends, e.g. a raise in disposable income, scarcity of spare time, raising the convenience level and the increase in electricity consumption. Finally, possible policies are identified which could contribute to a diminished growth of domestic electricity consumption. 61 refs.


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