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Koleninzetstudie (KIS): Een verkenning van de rol voor kolen in de periode 2000-2030.
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 1991
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-C--91-072 ECN rapport
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The coal use and -technology study KIS (’Kolen Inzet Studie’) is performed by the Unit ESC - Energy Studies of the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN). The work is sponsored by NOVEM, the Netherlands Agency for Energy and Environmental Research, and executed under guidance of a steering committee with representatives of NOVEM, the Ministry of Economic Affairs (EZ), the Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning and the Environment (VROM) and the Unit Fossil Fuels of ECN. KIS aims to assess the possible role for coal in the Netherlands energy system in the first decades of the next century and the port new coal conversion technologies will play under various conditions. The conditions considered relate to (sectoral) energy demand derived from national scenarios in an international context, to energy prices, to environmental constraints (acidification, solid waste management and disposal) and to the future role for nuclear power production. Targets for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are not explicitly included, but resulting CO2 emissions are calculated for each variant case. Further studies to assess the feasibility and costs of technical options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, using the same basic assumptions and tools, are mode by ESC. These studies are performed under the National Research Program for Global Pollution and Climate Change (NOMLK), with additional funding from the Ministry of Economic Affairs. The calculations are made with the MARKAL model, a dynamic process-oriented optimization model of national energy systems. MARKAL is developed within the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme of the international Energy Agency (IEA-ETSAP) and is widely used around the world for similar studies on national and sub-national level as well as in international cooperative studies. Coal is expected to account for 15% of the primary energy consumption in the Netherlands by the year 2000, almost exclusively for large-scale electricity generation and for iron and steel production. The KIS study suggests that by 2030 the share of coal may vary by a factor 2: from roughly the same level to a level about twice as high. New technologies such as coal gasification, methanol production, etc. will expand the use of coal to other markets. Relatively low gas prices and severe reduction goals for acid emissions will lower coal's contribution, the coal being replaced mainly by natural gas. The impact of gas prices is greater than the impact of acid emission constraints. End-of-pipe abatement technologies and the use of new energy technologies allow for a significant rise in coal use even with very low acid emission levels. In general the amount of solid wastes from coal burning can be re-used entirely for various applications, as it is today in the Netherlands. In some of the cases analyzed, coal ashes from smaller industrial AFBC boilers make up a significant fraction of solid coal wastes. The poorer and less constant quality of these materials may pose problems and/or give rise to higher costs. On the other hand the share of fly-ash and bottom-ash from pulverized coal boilers will decrease to be replaced by slag from coal gasifiers with relatively favourable properties for re-use. In most cases analyzed nuclear power is allowed to expand after the year 2000, generating up to one third of base-load electricity. Sensitivity runs with either unconstrained nuclear energy expansion or a ban on new nuclear power plants are mode, illustrating the significance of the nuclear option for the use of coal in electric power plants. In line with current policies the emission of CO2 in the year 2000 will be around or slightly below today’s level. In the high energy demand cases the emissions will rise thereafter by 24% at maximum in 2030 unless unconstrained expansion of nuclear power is assumed. In the latter case the emissions may fall well below the current figure of 159 million tonnes per year. This figure represents the actual emission, corrected for e.g. experts of carbon-based chemicals and carbon stored in plastics. In the low demand cases CO2 emissions wlll decrease after the year 2000. Even if no nuclear expansion is assumed, the 2030 level is still slightly below that of 2000. The average cost over the period 2010-2030 ranges between Dfl 33.00 and Dfl 35.50 per GJ of useful energy delivered if acid emissions are reduced by 75% compared with the 1980 level. Further reduction to 90% will raise the average costs by Dfl 0.40 to Dfl 0.80, the higher costs relating to the high energy demand cases. In the period 2000-2010 the total energy system costs make up 10.1% to 10.8% of the Netherlands GNP. In the high demand cases this figure falls only slightly thereafter, by around 0.2%, but this decrease is offset by additional measures if 90% acid emission eduction is to be achieved. In the low demand cases the share of energy costs in GNP drops to 9% in the 2010-2030 period and additional acid emission reduction options amount to only 0.1% of the GNP. Of the new coal conversion options included in the analysis, the Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power plant (IGCC) proves to be attractive in all cases, although the benefits are marginal in the low gas price cases. Medium Calorific Gas (MCG) from coal for large industrial sites and co-production of methanol and electricity (IGCC-OTM) are only competitive with higher natural gas prices. Other synthetic fuels like methanol and hydrogen make small contributions with very severe acid reduction targets, but only with the high energy demand projection. Smaller AFBC boilers (25 to 75 MWth capacity) for steam raising or combined heat-and-power production in industry are only introduced with less severe acid emission reduction targets. Several options are not chosen in any of the cases: large pulverized coal or PFBC power plants, large-scale production of synthetic natural gas (SNG), synthetic oil products (liquefaction) and AFBC boilers for cogeneration in district hearing systems. Some more speculative options show good perspectives to become cost-effective in future, but uncertainties regarding technical feasibility and performance, capital and operating costs and environmental characteristics are still too large to allow for conclusive findings. The options considered are in-situ gasification of domestic coal (UCG), Magnetic-Hydro-Dynamic power plants (MHD) and direct coal-fired gas turbines for industrial CHP plants (DCG). Besides potential cost savings UCG offers a potential way to exploit domestic coal resources and thereby improve security of supply and the trade balance. If successfully developed, DCG will emit far less acidifying agents than AFBC-CHP units and has a larger potential market.

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