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An assessment of the potential for achieving climate targets and energy savings up to 2020. Analyses with the Options Document for energy and emissions 2010/2020
DaniĆ«ls, B.W.; Farla, J.C.M.
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 13-5-2008
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-E--08-045 ECN rapport
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The Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment and the Ministry of Economic Affairs in the Netherlands have requested ECN and MNP to assess the potential and cost conse-quences to reduce Dutch greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and to assess the potential and costs of increasing the rate of energy efficiency improvement between 2010 and 2020. Over 150 measures to limit emissions and energy consumption have been assessed and used as the basis to analyse the possibility to reach three indicative emission targets (220, 200 and 180 Mton of CO2 equivalents). The measures have been combined and ranked based on minimising the na-tional cost of emission reduction. It appears that the identified measures can be combined to rep-resent a technical emission reduction potential of 90 Mton CO2 eq emissions in 2020. This im-plies a theoretical potential to reduce the national greenhouse gas emission from 251 Mton, as projected in the Global Economy scenario (variant) for 2020, to 160 Mton. Several emission targets, ranging from 220 to 180 Mton CO2 eq have been studied in detail. In a cost minimising package to limit emissions to 180 Mton CO2 eq, the largest contribution will come from energy savings followed by CO2 capture and storage and nuclear energy. It must be noted that the fea-sibility and availability of policy instruments to overcome the barriers to implement these meas-ures have not been studied or taken into account. In the packages for emission reduction the rate of energy efficiency improvement will be increased from 1.0% in the baseline to 1.4-1.6% per year. An energy efficiency improvement rate of over 2% per year can theoretically be reached on the basis of the measures that were assessed. Several sensitivity analyses were performed. They show that the national mitigation costs depend amongst others on the assumptions for CO2 storage capacity, and acceptance of the nuclear option. Furthermore, higher oil prices do not strongly influence the feasibility of reaching the indicative emission targets or energy efficiency rates. However, they lead to a decrease of the overall costs. This report is the translation of ECN report ECN-C--05-106.

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