ECN and PBL calculate energy policy

The current policy of the Dutch cabinet will cause the share of renewable energy in the Netherlands to rise from 4 per cent in 2010 to 7-10 per cent in 2020. This conclusion is drawn by ECN and the Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) in their recently published report. On assignment of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, they have calculated the consequences of the current energy policy. The rising share of renewable energy is mainly the result of additional wind energy, increased use of biofuels in the transport sector and a higher share of sustainable heat, including heat from biomass, geothermal heat, heat from manure digestion or heat generated by heat pumps. The expected increase in deployment of sustainable energy is huge, but insufficient to meet the European target of 14 per cent in 2020, conclude the researchers.


In their analysis, ECN and PBL addressed economic trends, energy prices and anticipated developments abroad. They compared various scenarios. The policy that has been established by the Dutch Cabinet and Parliament will lead to about 8 per cent sustainable energy in 2020. Implementation of the Spring Agreement will result in a share of renewable energy of about 9 per cent. Finally, a package of energy measures, which may or may not be adopted by the new cabinet, e.g. the obligation for coal-fired plants to co-fire 20 per cent biomass, will lead to a share of renewable energy of about 11 per cent, with a bandwidth of 9 to 12 per cent.

Greenhouse gas

Both research organisations have also examined the emission of greenhouse gases and other air-polluting substances. These are likely to remain below the European ceiling in 2020. The Spring Agreement contributes to the reduction of greenhouse gases. After all, it states that coal-fired plants are no longer exempted from the coal tax and that from now on tax should also be paid on the cost of commuter traffic. 2030 is likely to show a further reduction in the emission of harmful substances.

Are you curious what the future has in store for you? In the Policy Studies unit, 65 researchers with technical, economic, social-scientific or environmental backgrounds work on strategic analyses and advice in the field of energy. They can calculate scenarios for you, too, and help you make the right strategic choices in time.

Sytze Dijkstra will gladly tell you more about it. Give him a call at +31 88 515 4858.