Transition management

A major focus in ECN policy studies’ research programme on transition management is on developing managerial tools and methods that can assist both innovators to contribute to the transition through technology push and that can assist governments involved in preparing, designing, executing and evaluating transition projects aimed at demand pull.

What are transitions?
Transitions are major; long-term (50 years or more) processes of change in for example energy supply, communication, and mobility. Transitions imply not just technological change, but also change in (consumer) habits, knowledge, institutional organisation, policies, cultural aspects, law and other aspects of society. That is why transitions are labelled as co-evolution of technology and society. Transitions not only occur in many different domains, but also involve different levels of change: the local, regional, national and international level. Because transitions take place in many different domains and at different levels, they involve many different actors such as policy makers, industry, scientists, consumers and users, NGOs and other civil society organisations, such as i.e. consumer organisations.

Why is there a need for a transition in the energy sector?
The energy sector, as many other sectors in contemporary societies, faces structural problems. These problems are related to oil dependency, security of supply and climate change. Although the environmental performance of the energy sector has improved over the past 30 years (e.g., reduction of SO₂, NOx, and particle matters), policy makers as well as other actors in society increasingly acknowledge the limitations of end-of-pipe solutions and the need for more structural change. The need to shift from incremental innovation to system changes has facilitated the emergence of ‘transition thinking’ among scientists, policy makers, and increasingly also industry.

Do we need to manage the energy transition?
The management of the energy transition is necessary because of the need of structural change towards sustainability. Actors involved often tend to continue development along successful lines of thinking and acting from the past, which at best results in optimising the existing energy system rather than realising structural change. In other words, if the transition is not managed, new technologies and solutions will still be developed, but not necessarily towards a sustainable energy system. The transition needs to be steered to some extent to take a more sustainable and desirable direction. 

Is it possible to manage the energy transition?
The management of the transition in such a way that the multi-actor, multi-level and co-evolutionary attributes of transitions are acknowledged, is a complex and difficult process. However, through coordinated action and bundling of activities steering of ongoing processes into more desirable directions is possible.  

Who could or should be the managers of the energy transition?
Transitions need sustainable and innovative products and solutions. Market actors such as research institutes and industry develop these innovations. However, innovations also need to fit into society’s future needs. Innovators need to know what those needs are to be able to develop innovations that fit within them, and dare to develop innovations, knowing there is wide support (both financially and politically) that protects their innovations in the first development stages up to market introduction. Exploring and making explicit society’s future needs is a role for local, regional, national and international governments.

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