ECN: Reference projections 2008-2020
Energy and Emission Scenarios - National Projections
Update Energy and Emission 2008-2020
The report Actualisatie referentieramingen. Energie en emissies 2008-2020 (Update of the Reference Projections. Energy and Emission 2008-2020) is only available in Dutch. To give you an impression of the contents an English abstract is provided:
Changes in energy prices, policies and other developments justified an update of the Global Economy variant of the Reference Projections 2005-2020. This report describes this update, including two energy price variants. Apart from the energy prices, the main changes relevant for energy and greenhouse gas emissions include the higher CO2-price assumed in the emission trade system, the inclusion of plans for new gas-based power plants, the recent surge in new horticulture combined heat and power, the new policies for renewable electricity and the inclusion of new transport projections. These developments may affect the emissions of air pollutants as well. Major changes specifically relevant for the emissions of air pollutants are the agreements with refineries and electricity producers on the emissions of SO2. The reference projections include only policies that are already decided on in their definitite form. Hence, the results include only part of the Clean and Efficient policy programme. The assumptions for future economic growth and demography still originate from the Global Economy scenario. However, the results for the period 2005-2008 now reflect historic realizations where data availability allows so. Greenhouse gas emissions are considerably higher than in the Reference Projections 2005-2020, mainly due to surge of new power plants. However, these emissions are included in the European CO2 emission trade system. Therefore, they do not affect the emissions as defined under the National and European targets. The changes in emissions not in the trade system are much smaller.
For more information you might want to contact
Bert Daniels of the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) or
Wim van der Maas of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).
These are the available versions of the Reference Outlook:
