ECN: Newsletter March 2008
Extra - Newsletters
March 2008
Sustainable innovations in road transport
In line with the European climate policy and going even further, the Dutch government has set ambitious targets for greenhouse gas emission reduction by 2020. Therefore, it aims at accelerating the market penetration of innovative technologies for sustainable mobility. ECN has analysed the emission reduction potential of technical innovations in drive trains and alternative fuels in the Dutch road transport sector. The options considered are (plug-in) hybrids, efficient tires, intelligent transport systems, biofuels, CNG/biogas and hydrogen. Their conditions for success have been analysed and two innovation scenarios have been constructed showing realisable penetration rates by 2020 and 2030. Energy use and emissions of road transport have been calculated with the TEMPO simulation model (Transport Emission Model for POlicy evaluation). We conclude that technical innovations in drive trains and alternative fuels can achieve substantial CO2 emission reductions in the Dutch road transport sector. Since it takes 20 to 30 years to really achieve a transition towards a more sustainable transport sector, early action is necessary, but should be based on a clear strategy. This requires a balancing of different policy objectives, such as CO2 emissions reduction, energy savings, air quality and reduction of the dependency on imported oil. It also requires an international effort to stimulate innovation at a scale sufficiently large to induce technology learning and cost decreases.
Client | Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial planning and the Environment (VROM) and Dutch Ministry of Transport (V&W) |
Contact | |
Report |
ECN Policy Studies joins the EurObserv?ER Barometer consortium
In the field of renewable energy in Europe, the renowned ?Barometer? assists policy makers to measure the progress made by renewable energies in each Member State of the European Union. ECN Policy Studies joined the EurObserv?ER Barometer consortium as of January 2008. Thematic Barometers are published in a two-months interval and present statistical data on renewables in the preceding year. Besides information on realisations, the Barometer discusses the backgrounds of renewable energy policy and it reviews selected countries. Also, industry news is provided. The Wind Power Barometer 2007 has recently been released. According to this publication, the European wind capacity at the end of 2007 amounted to 57 gigawatt (an annual increase of 8 GW). In the year 2007, onshore and offshore wind power provided an estimated production of approximately 98 TWh, representing 3% of EU electricity production. The bilingual (French/English) EurObserv?ER Wind Power Barometer 2007 is available for download. Mid April 2008 the next EurObserv?ER Barometer is expected, focusing on photovoltaics.
Client | European Commission, DG TREN ?Intelligent Energy Europe? programme and Ademe, the French Environment and Energy management Agency |
Contact | |
Website |
Expanded involvement in monitoring and evaluation of energy efficiency
Drawing lessons from solid monitoring and evaluation of energy use and its drivers is an important basis for improving energy efficiency policies. Since 2000 ECN coordinates the yearly calculation of realised Dutch energy savings, using the Protocol Monitoring Energy savings. Presently ECN is responsible for key elements of the European project EMEEES, which provides methods to calculate energy savings for the Energy Service Directive (ESD). ECN also has an active role in European standardization activities on calculation of energy savings. At the national level the joint ECN and SenterNovem proposal for setting up a comprehensive monitoring & evaluation system on energy savings was accepted by the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Client | European Commission/DG-TREN and Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs |
Contact | |
Report | Realised energy saving 1995-2002 according to the Protocol Monitoring Energy Saving |
New cost assessment for renewable energy for Dutch subsidies
On assignment of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, ECN and KEMA have performed a cost assessment of renewable electricity and gas production in the Netherlands, aimed at new projects in the near future. The research effort, addressing various categories, was part of an advice on the subsidy base for the new feed-in support scheme SDE. The Ministry used the advice to decide on the actual level of remuneration. Stakeholders involved in renewable energy investment decisions were extensively consulted in the process. The new support scheme SDE has been approved by the Dutch Parliament and is due to open on April 1st.
Client | Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs |
Contact | |
Website | ECN (in Dutch) |
New project to identify sustainable biofuels policies
Recently the kick-off meeting of ELOBIO (Efficient and Low disturbing BIOfuel policies) took place in Brussels. ELOBIO is coordinated by ECN; partners are IIASA, VITO, CIEMAT, COWI, Chalmers and IPIEO. ELOBIO aims to design biofuel policies with minimal impact on food and feed markets and biomass for power and heat. Key activity will be the understanding and modelling of biomass markets and trade along with an intensive stakeholder consultation on policies and impacts.
Client | European Commission, DG TREN |
Contact | |
Website |
The influence of technological learning on total investments for technology development
Learning curves were used to assess the effect of different government support schemes on the introduction speed and cost reduction of a new technology as well as the costs and duration of the support schemes. This work leads to the following conclusions. (1) Initially the costs of the support scheme of a learning technology will rise, but after reaching a peak, the costs will continuously lower until the new technology is economically viable and support becomes unnecessary. (2) Before starting a support scheme, one has to determine whether its costs are expected to be higher then the available budget. If so, it is better to abandon the support scheme beforehand as abandoning mid-way may lead to destruction of public and private capital. (3) The cost and duration of the support scheme are highly sensitive to the progress ratio which is difficult to predict in advance. (4) To prevent exceeding of the budget it is essential to monitor the cost reductions during the time the support scheme is in place and take actions when cost reductions lag behind.
Client | ECN (EZS subsidy |
Contact |
Carbon credit supply potential beyond 2012 not depleted
In the context of climate change mitigation commitments and post-2012 negotiations questions have arisen around the potential and dynamics of the carbon market beyond 2012. The Ministry of Environment (VROM) requested ECN to undertake a study that should provide insight in the supply side of carbon credits after 2012. The study was carried out in collaboration with Ecofys and Point Carbon and analysed the potential and costs of greenhouse gas reduction options in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and other flexible mechanisms. The main conclusion is that the potential for carbon credits in 2020 is rather uncertain, and could be smaller than generally assumed. It is however likely to be sufficient to meet demand for credits by Annex I countries under a range of post-2012 climate target scenarios. The study has also made clear that the extent to which this potential can be harnessed by the CDM strongly depends on future eligibility decisions, notably for avoided deforestation, the application of the additionality criterion, and to a lesser extent the success of programmatic CDM and the adoption rate of technologies. Compared to this market potential, demand for carbon credits could be in the same order of magnitude, depending on the post-2012 negotiations and domestic reductions in countries with commitments.
Client | Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment (VROM) |
Contact | |
Report | Carbon credit supply potential beyond 2012. A bottom-up assessment of mitigation options |
Cost benefit analysis energy storage
ECN, in collaboration with TU-Delft, analysed the role of energy storage in the Dutch power system of 2020 with a large amount of wind energy (10 GW). Three alternatives for realizing a large scale energy storage unit were analysed. The study enabled decision making at the ministries of Economic Affairs and VROM regarding a request for governmental support of one of the projects. The ministries asked the Transition Platform Sustainable Electricity Supply to organise the study (quick scan). TU-Delft analysed the impact of wind energy on the Dutch power system. The conclusion was that integration of 10 GW wind energy does not require energy storage if conventional power generation capacity is sufficiently flexible and exchange with neighbouring networks is possible. ECN?s cost benefit analysis showed that from a social perspective the compressed air storage and expansion of the interconnection with Norway is more attractive then the other options. An analysis from an investor perspective indicated that revenues of price arbitrage in the current market are insufficient for all project alternatives to cover the fixed costs.
Client | Dutch Ministry of Economic affairs |
Contact | |
Report |
