Markets, infrastructure and energy security - Security of supply

Suppy/Demand index

The Supply/Demand Index (brief S/D Index) aims at review and assessment of energy SOS in the medium and longer run. The S/D Index covers final energy demand, energy conversion and transport and primary energy sources (PES) supply. It uses objective types of inputs and inputs of a more subjective nature dealing with weighing factors. The objective inputs concern energy balances providing the shares of supply of the Primary Energy Sources (oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables and other) and final energy demand sectors (i.e. for demand: industrial use, residential use, tertiary use and transport use.). In addition, the S/D Index model characterises the adequacy and reliability in energy conversion and transport for the secondary energy carriers (electricity, gas, heat and transport fuels). The S/D Index is novel in trying to capture a comprehensive picture of the entire energy system. Usually, SoS indicators only address parts of the energy system, e.g. only the primary energy sources with often a focus on oil and gas only, or the electricity system.

The method is described in: EU Standards for Energy Security for Supply - Updates on the Crisis Capability Index and the Supply/Demand Index, Quantification for EU-27

The Supply/Demand Index has been used for (1) benchmarking purposes; (2) analysis of vulnerabilities; (3) comparison of 'today' versus future developments (using scenarios); and (4) analysis of the impacts of different policies. Impacts on SoS can be correlated with impacts on e.g. GHG emissions, increased role of renewables of energy saving measures.

The Supply/Demand Index has been applied for:

• the EU-27 and its individual Member States (client: Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs)
• Ireland (client: Sustainable Energy Ireland)
• EU-27 and other world regions (clients: IEA Clean Coal Centre, DG TREN)

Other applications

• Energy security of supply under EU climate policies, 2007
• New Analysis - SOS Supply/Demand Index Ireland 2006 and 2020,
  Chapter 6 In: Security of supply in Ireland - 2007 report
• Security of supply in Ireland 2006

Examples

EU-27 S/D Index 2005

Trade off between improvements in SoS and reductions in GHG emissions, EU-27 policy scenarios. Improvements and reductions in 2020 relative to the PRIMES Trends to 2030 - update scenario.

For more information please contact: Ad Seebregts