Energy and Emission Scenarios - Global & European Projections

European Energy Future

In 2004 the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs published a white paper on innovation in energy policy describing a new approach to persistent environmental problems: transition management. Transitions are defined as processes of socio-technical evolution in which economic, institutional and technological structures develop interactively and change drastically in the long run. Transition management prescribes the way in which society-wide and complex system innovations can be guided deliberately towards goals of sustainability. So far, one important element of transition management has been implemented: the establishment of national innovation alliances between industry, research and local government. A recent review of energy transition policy by a high-level advisory commission compliments the Ministry on its pioneering role, but suggests strengthening the international component of transition policy. This essay concerns the European dimension of transition policy.

Transition thinking uses a multi-level perspective of social change processes. At the micro-level experimentation and demonstration is fostered in niche markets to promote innovation and establish a breeding ground for commercialisation of new energy technologies. At the meso-level successful innovations gradually influence the foundations of the energy system in terms of infrastructural configuration, institutional arrangements and company behaviour until a new energy regime emerges. At the macro-level societies define their basic values and broad ambitions in terms of sustainability. These three levels of social change processes are referred to as respectively the niche, regime and landscape level. They can be linked to geographical scales. From a European perspective the Netherlands can be viewed as a niche for experiments where variation is stimulated and adaptive capacity is maintained, while Europe is the selection environment that ultimately determines the success of energy technologies. At the same time, it is clear that the European selection environment itself is not immune to geopolitical and socio-cultural changes at the global level. Indeed, the European energy regime will evolve in different directions dependent upon those global changes and Europe’s own ambitions at the global scale. This essay is based on the idea that the future of energy in the Netherlands will emerge as a result of anticipating on potential European energy transitions. To explore those potential European energy transitions is the purpose of this document.

The major part of this essay concerns the storylines for these four scenarios at the global level of socio-political landscapes, at the European level of energy regime transitions and at the national level for innovation systems. As the names of the scenarios suggest the prospects for international trade in energy are considered crucial for differentiating European futures and allowing conclusions about actionable agendas for innovation.

The report can be downloaded at ECN.

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