Extra - Newsletters

November 2009

ECN Policy Studies carries out energy studies in the field of energy and climate change. The objective is to enhance insights in energy consumption, energy markets, objectives of energy policy and policy instruments and to contribute in a significant and independent manner to better policy decisions in the field of energy.

The printable version of the newsletter can be downloaded here.

Selected projects

Vision 2050

The European Climate Foundation (ECF) asked ECN and several other institutes to contribute to Vision 2050, a project that aims to contribute to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe of 90% by 2050. This implies a fully decarbonised power system and passenger transport. The project is implemented in close cooperation with the European Commission. If all goes well, the Commission will use the results in its proposals for the Spring Council in 2010. The project concentrates on the European power system and investigates its possible development in several scenarios, with a renewable energy share ranging from 40 to 100%, complemented with shares of nuclear and CCS. Some activities comprise:

• Estimating the costs (CAPEX, OPEX, learning curves) of all relevant power technology op-tions.
• Drafting the scenarios for Europe and several sub-regions.
• Investigating intermittency issues that are relevant for the high shares of wind and solar en-ergy, and drafting proposals on how to deal with them.
• Looking at the economic opportunities and costs.
• Proposing policy instruments that are needed to attain the ambitious target.

Beside ECN, the other project partners involved are McKinsey (project management), KEMA (grid issues) and the Centre (outreach). It is our ambition that the project results in more than pa-pers only; a positive decision by the Spring Council to move forwards is also envisaged. A final report by ECF is planned to be ready by early 2010.

Measuring Reporting and Verification in a Copenhagen Agreement

What do the letters MRV have to do with the Copenhagen climate negotiations? Quite a lot! MRV stands for ‘measuring, reporting, and verifying’ of emission reductions, other climate-related actions and the support provided to these actions, and has become one of the central issues in the negotiations. ECN is conducting research on aspects related to the MRV of mitigation actions. We determined a series of criteria to establish whether and how the current mitigation actions are MRV-able. Practical insights from case studies on lighting efficiency, biofuel and renewable energy show how MRV is carried out in both developed and developing countries. The criteria and the case studies were presented in a workshop in The Hague on September 16th and in a successful parallel event at the negotiation session in Bangkok, on September 29th. The discussions focused on the essential elements to be addressed at COP15 such as: what should be under MRV; which metrics should be used; and what can be learnt from the CDM. In the workshops, it became clear that if the MRV of climate actions is arranged in a credible way, this will enhance trust between developed and developing countries. MRV could therefore contribute to making a successful climate treaty at COP15 more achievable.

Communication and participation near CO2 capture and storage operations: NearCO2

Since April 2009 ECN coordinates a 2-year European project called NEARCO2. The overall objective of this project is to develop strategies to communicate in an objective manner to stake-holders and the public at large the advantages and risks of CO2 capture and storage, and to in-volve these parties in local decision-making on CCS projects. CO2 capture and storage is increas-ingly being considered as a serious option to mitigate climate change. Public engagement in the development of CCS operations will increase over time. To enable the public to form a well con-sidered opinion on a technology as complex as CCS, access to factual, comprehensive, and reliable information is required. However, currently little is known about what would constitute effective communication and participation methods in CCS projects and how these may differ for various audiences. By ‘effective’ communication and participation methods, we mean: suiting the public’s needs. These needs will differ by group, depending for instance on proximity to project sites. People living in the vicinity of a CCS project site are likely to have other information needs and opinions about CCS than the public at large. They will also have different needs regarding possibilities for community participation. It is therefore important to identify public needs and the mechanisms that may affect the formation of public opinions before developing communication and participation methods. Findings of this project will feed into the development and assessment of public participation strategies and communication materials on CCS. These will eventually be disseminated to local stakeholders and the larger public.  

Biomass role in achieving the Climate Change & Renewables EU policy targets. Demand and Supply dynamics under the perspective of stakeholders

Biomass Futures, an EU funded project, aims at assessing the role of biomass in meeting the re-newable energy and GHG emission reduction targets in Europe through a quantitative analyses framework. The project will work through a series of interrelated work packages in order to pro-vide a better understanding of bioenergy demand and supply dynamics, and to what extend and how a sustainable production and use of domestic and imported biomass sources can contribute to EU27 energy needs. As one of the work package leaders, ECN will elaborate the role of bio-energy in different sectors (electricity, heat and transport) through extensive modelling work. ECN models currently analyse only one sector; AdmireREBUS focuses on electricity, Bio-TRANS analyses transport and Renewable H/C looks at the heating and cooling sector. While most renewable energy sources generate one or two specific energy carriers, bioenergy encom-passes a matrix of processes that produces various end products (i.e. electricity, heat, biofuels). In order to mimic the competition from different sectors and allow for inter-sectoral optimisation a new ‘Biomass Allocation Model’ will be constructed, overarching the Biotrans, Admire-REBUS and RES-H/C models. This model will analyse:

• The biomass share in the different sectors.
• Avoided fossil energy application.
• Costs (direct and in comparison with fossil competitors).
• GHG emission reductions.

EurObserv’ER barometers: five new releases over 2009

The EurObserv’ER consortium, in which ECN Policy Studies participates, has released five European renewable energy Barometers during the year 2009. The files are available for downloading at the website www.eurobserv-er.org and the total number of downloads for the current year is expected to largely overpass the number of 2008 downloads. One of the new features of the website is the implementation of an e-mail alert, which automatically informs sub-scribers about new releases. This e-mail notification is free of charge and registration is possible through the project website www.eurobserv-er.org. All 2009 EurObserv’ER Barometers are available for downloading through the following links: Heat Pumps Barometer (October 2009), Biofuels Barometer (August 2009), Solar Thermal Barometer (June 2009), Photovoltaic Barometer (April 2009) and Wind Power Barometer (February 2009). ‘The State of Renewable Energies in Europe’ is a synthesis of the Thematic Barometers published during 2008 (with data up to and including 2007) with detailed capacity and energy performance data for all 27 Member States of the European Union. Also, one chapter provides socio-economic indicators (employment and turnover) as well as seven country case studies, where specific regions are particularly strong in renewable energy industry. These regions are in Germany, France, Austria, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Slovenia. The next Barometer will be released in December 2009, focusing on solid biomass, and early 2010 a new ‘State of Renewable Energies in Europe’ will become available.

Market analysis biofuels; implications for the armed forces in the Netherlands

Commercial road fuels are increasingly blended with biofuels. These biofuel blends impose risks for the specific application in the military environment. Therefore the Ministry of Defence has commissioned ECN to provide a market analysis of biofuel (blends) projected to become avail-able up till 2030, with a focus on diesel fuels for ground use. The study shows that the percentage of conventional biodiesel (fatty acid methyl ester, FAME) in the EU is likely to increase to around 7% until 2020. It is unlikely that the share of FAME in commercially available diesel blends will increase above 10%. A more advanced first generation biofuel (hydrogenated vegeta-ble oil, HVO) is expected to gain an increasing market share, especially in the time window 2015-2020. After 2020, the fraction of biogenic diesel in blends may further increase. However, this additional demand will most likely be met by the production of advanced high quality second generation BTL diesel, thereby not reducing the fuel quality, neither for military applications. From a global perspective, it is most likely that up to 2030 biodiesel blends will only contain a minor average fraction of diesel from biological origin (~below 3%). The main reason is that bio-fuel substitutes for petrol are expected to maintain their market share of about 80% of the total biofuel production. However, in addition to the EU, biodiesel blends up to 10% may also be in-troduced in regions with a large biodiesel feedstock supply potential, such as South East Asia, Latin America or Sub-Sahara Africa.