Extra - Newsletters

July 2010

ECN Policy Studies carries out energy studies in the field of energy and climate change. The objective is to enhance insights in energy consumption, energy markets, objectives of energy policy and policy instruments and to contribute in a significant and independent manner to better policy decisions in the field of energy.

The printable version of the newsletter can be downloaded here.

Selected projects

Probabilistic Long-term Assessment of New Energy Technology Scenario’s (Planets)

PLANETS, an FP7 project co-coordinated by FEEM and ECN, was successfully finalised in June 2010 with a policy workshop in Brussels. Robust scenarios were devised for the evolution of low-carbon energy technologies over the next 50 years with a European and global perspective. A portfolio of six models was used that spanned a broad range of regional coverage, technological detail, and economic representation. The implications of climate policy were analysed under varying assumptions for regional emission reduction commitments. Uncertainties regarding the evolution of climate policy and the prospects of key mitigation technologies played a central role. Technology assessments investigated the sustainability and competitiveness of different energy futures. One of the main policy recommendations was that interim emission targets matter for the economics of long-term climate stabilisation. The global costs of climate policy are manageable, but they are sensitive to the temperature target and the speed of action. A climate deal should consider heterogeneities of regional mitigation costs. Restrictions on the use of international carbon trading are likely to induce only modest economic penalties on a global scale. The achieve-ment of climate stabilisation targets requires a dynamic and diverse set of mitigation options, which initially favours bridging technologies that match the existing energy system. CCS could be an important mitigation technology in the transition towards a low-carbon economy, but its large-scale deployment requires a balanced mixture of policy instruments. All PLANETS output can be found at www.feem-project.net/planets.

Renewable energy at the IJsselmeer Dam

ECN Policy Studies performed a study for Rijkswaterstaat dienst IJsselmeergebied (Netherlands Directorate General of Public Works and Water Management) on technical-economic data for renewable energy options that could be used in the framework of improvement of the Afsluitdijk (IJsselmeer Dam). The Afsluitdijk will be thoroughly improved in order to protect the citizens against flooding. One of the objectives of this integral improvement is to include renewable energy options. The data provided apply to solar PV, tidal energy (based on a barrier or tidal stream energy), and a technology that is in the R&D stage, i.e. salinity gradient power (also called ‘Blue Energy’). The latter technology is expected to be in the demonstration stage around 2020 and commercially available around 2030 if the results of the RD&D stage are satisfactory. Salinity gradient power is the only renewable energy option that can provide a substantial amount of electricity in the long term. Data on wind power - in the IJsselmeer, ‘wet feet’ wind farms - have been included in an Appendix, although wind energy is not envisioned as an option for improving the IJsselmeer Dam. Decisio and CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) will use these data to conduct a so-called social cost-benefit analysis.

A reality check for low carbon development strategies

To avoid dangerous effects of climate change, emissions will need to be halved by mid century. To achieve this ambitious target, developing countries will need to contribute to the reduction, mainly by moving their projected economic development onto a lower emissions pathway. To this end, ‘low carbon development strategies’ (LCDS) have been coined early 2009 as an instrument under the UNFCCC, for countries to align their development and climate agendas. The concept is still very much in the spotlight, but practical questions around the relatively abstract idea remain. In the project ‘paving the way for low carbon development strategies’, ECN aims to gain a better understanding of what LCDS can and cannot achieve, how it can be useful and what would be a sensible approach for making the LCDS instrument more concrete. In the project ECN Policy Studies works together with the governments of Indonesia and Ghana to evaluate what LCDS could look like concretely in the two country contexts. Preliminary findings indicate that LCDS can be a valuable instrument for mapping actions on development and climate, it can guide international public support and private investments, and be an opportunity for a forward looking, national political process building capacity and awareness on climate and development. This can however only be achieved when making the strategies voluntary, country owned and aligned with national development priorities. LCDS is too complex and too context specific for a generic, template based approach. Overall, the LCDS concept has a lot of potential, but also some limitations, especially in making it a mandatory instrument under the UNFCCC.

Noord-Brabant Master plan for Energy

Noord-Brabant faces major challenges in providing its contribution to the national energy and climate targets for 2020, but the energy transition also entails promising opportunities for innovative industrial development. These conclusions can be drawn from a study that ECN conducted in the framework of the province’s preparations of a Master plan for Energy, covering the period 2010-2020. The Master plan aims to prepare the province for a change to a more sustainable energy system, seizing economic opportunities that emerge along the way. Firstly, ECN quantified to which extent the themes can deliver the Noord-Brabant contribution to the national goals on energy use and sustainable energy. The greatest potential for energy saving is in the Built Environment, but this is notoriously difficult to realise. Provincial policy can contribute by improving the effectiveness of national policy. For the sustainable production of energy, biomass offers the most promising opportunities for Noord-Brabant, but other options are also required to meet the targets. Secondly, ECN made a quantitative analysis detailing to what extent the innovation capabilities in Noord-Brabant can be leveraged in the fields of PV and Electric Cars and Smart Grids. Noord-Brabant is in a good position to engage in activities in both fields. However, focus and mass are key. Recommendations as to which areas are deemed most interesting have been made. The results of the ECN report feed into the development of the Master plan, which will be discussed in the provincial parliament before summer.

ECN Policy Studies participates in EDGaR

Energy Delta Gas Research (EDGaR ) is a public-private strategic research programme that consists of ten knowledge and industrial organizations, including ECN. EDGaR makes a case for the energy future of the Netherlands, with special focus on the development of the Dutch natural gas position in the international perspective as well as on achieving a sustainable energy system from this position. The main objective of EDGaR is to contribute to these developments by carrying out fundamental, strategic and technological research. Over the next four years ECN Policy Studies aims to contribute to this research programme in three specific projects. These projects address: (1) the relation between security of gas supply in the gas value chain and the public goal of sustainability; (2) the functioning of the gas market and its interactions with other markets (e.g. electricity, CO2); and (3) strategies for a sustainable transition of the gas sector. All projects are performed in collaboration with other EDGaR-partners. The official EDGaR-website, which is currently under construction, will provide for a more detailed description of the projects.

Infrastructure Roadmap for Energy Networks in Europe (IRENE-40)

The mature and ageing EU electricity transmission and electrical power system infrastructure is starting to show decreased security margins. According to UCTE the changing generation mix will contribute to upcoming congestion situations, resulting in a limitation in possible exports. The European Commission also points out the danger arising from the operation of networks closer to their physical limits and foresees a need for implementing active innovative solutions to cope with these issues. Moreover, roads towards a sustainable, secure and cost efficient future power grid are impacted by today's actions; i.e. today’s investment decisions define system aspects in the next 40 years. New strategies for network development will be needed as the generation mix shifts towards car-bon dioxide neutral energy sources. IRENE-40 is an FP7 EU project focusing on these issues with the goal to identify strategies for transmission technology investors and regulators enabling a more secure, ecologically sustainable and competitive European elec-tricity system. The project involves several partners including universities and technology providers. The project has started in 2008 and will be running until 2012. ECN will be the work package leader in the last year of the project.