January 2012

ECN Policy Studies carries out energy studies in the field of energy and climate change. The objective is to enhance insights in energy consumption, energy markets, objectives of energy policy and policy instruments and to contribute in a significant and independent manner to better policy decisions in the field of energy.

The printable version of the newsletter can be downloaded here.

Selected projects

The IEE-funded project ‘WINDSPEED’ finalised its offshore wind roadmap earlier this year - the first roadmap to address the realistic potentials for offshore wind deployment in the Central and Southern North Sea.

Headed by ECN, the consortium team developed a series of scenarios to determine the offshore wind energy capacity and costs under different spatial priorities and development perspectives in the future. The most proactive offshore wind scenario presents a deployment potential of 135 GW in the Central and Southern North Sea basin by 2030. This ambitious but realistic target is presented in the WINDSPEED Roadmap along with policy recommendations to support this development.

To meet this target, the six North Sea countries - Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom - must be willing to increase spatial prioritisation of areas closer to shore for offshore wind development and to establish an offshore grid.

The Roadmap emphasises the need for greater coordination between countries in developing offshore wind. Not only is greater coordination beneficial for the development of an offshore grid and integration of the electricity into the market, it is also beneficial in terms of finding suitable locations for offshore wind in a sea basin with many cross border features.

Using scenario modeling, a new subsidy concept as proposed by some companies was analyzed. Conditions at which this concept is favorable, are described extensively in the report.

Client:      European Commission
Contact:   Karina Veum
Website:  http://www.windspeed.eu  

The EU-funded project SUSPLAN recently presented its final results on energy infrastructure needs to allow for large scale integration of renewable energy sources in Europe in the timeframe to 2050. Key of recommendations and actions fall under the headings - grid development and planning processes, authorisation procedures, financing, and network management.

To meet a significant increase in the share of RES, considerable investments in new infrastructure are needed. In particular, strengthening of electricity corridors from South and North-Western Europe to Central Europe will be necessary. Furthermore, more intelligent market design and regulation will also be needed to incentivize an efficient use of the networks. Early decisions are important for efficient solutions. It is also crucial to consider the impact of distributed RES generation in reducing costs due to an assumed reduction in peak demand.

Gas will continue to play an important role. From an infrastructure perspective, Turkey and the Balkan region is highly likely to emerge as important gas hubs, and gas is expected to be sourced from Central Asia and Russia, re-exported to South-East Europe, and from there transported further into Central and Western Europe.

Client:      European Commission - DG ENER
Contact:   Karina Veum
Website:  www.susplan.eu 

The project "Cost-efficient and sustainable deployment of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) towards the EU 20% target by 2020, and beyond (RES4LESS)" was approved by the EU Programme Intelligent Energy Europe and has officially kicked-off in January 2011.

The main objective of the RES4LESS project - "more renewable energy in Europe at less cost" - is to develop a Roadmap to a cost effective deployment of RES in the period up to 2020 and 2030. The result will be more renewables against lower cumulative cost as compared to the Member States’ "do it yourself’ approach in reaching the national renewables targets.

Through a combination of scientific research and wide-reaching stakeholder consultation, the project will deliver a methodology to identify and promote the development of renewable energy Valleys of Opportunity, under the different cooperation schemes indicated by the Directive 2009/28/EC. It will furthermore address grid issues of developing such Valleys of Opportunity and what needs to be done at EU and national level to trigger cooperation between Member States. The key results will be summarized into a final Roadmap for the deployment of RES for the time periods 2010 to 2020 and 2020 to 2030.

Other important activities within the project will be to provide input to the NREAP progress reports and offer technical assistance to the RES Concerted Action initiative.

ECN coordinates
RES4LESS is 2-year collaborative research and development project, coordinated by the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). Consortium partners include: Technical University of Denmark (DTU)- Denmark, IT POWER- UK, Enviros - Czech Republic, Institute for Applied Ecology (Oeko Institute)- Germany, Centre for Promotion of Clean and Efficient Energy in Romania (ENERO), CIEMAT - Spain.

Client:      European Commission
Contact:   Paul van den Oosterkamp
Website:  http://www.res4less.eu

Compressed natural gas (CNG) as a transport fuel is gaining momentum in the Netherlands. A Dutch certification system could offer the opportunity to allow fuel suppliers to virtually sell renewable gas. What implications will this have for the transport sector, keeping in mind the national and European policy environment? Could it lead to additional biogas production? These questions and a number of different perspectives have been addressed in a recent ECN study. The study (in Dutch) also presents a number of dilemmas surrounding virtual green gas.

Client:      Ministry of Infrastructure & Environment NL
Contact:   Coen Hanschke
Website:   http://www.ecn.nl/publicaties/ECN-E--10-054    

Compared to other Europeans, the Dutch sometimes have different needs when it comes to charging electric vehicles. That is the outcome of a study on the preferences of Europeans with regard to charging of electric vehicles, conducted by the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) in the framework of the European research project Grid4Vehicles. Consumers from eight different countries were asked to fill out an online questionnaire on how, where and under which conditions they would like to charge an electric vehicle. The report on the results of this survey has been published today. One striking detail is the fact that, compared to the other Europeans, the Dutch would like to have more charging points for their electric vehicles. They also have higher demands with regard to the range of the electric vehicle.

In the European project Grid4Vehicle (www.g4v.eu) electricity companies from all over Europe are working together to map the effects of the large-scale use of electric vehicles on the grid and to examine to what extent, how and where the grid needs to be adjusted in the short and longer term. The ECN study on preferences of potential users of electric vehicles will be included in the analyses of the effects on the electricity grid. The project output is available on the website.

Client:       European Commission
Contact:    Ingo Bunzeck
Website:   http://www.g4v.eu 

The existing fiscal treatment of passenger cars in the Netherlands is (partly) based on vehicle CO₂ emissions. Currently, only tank to wheel (TTW) emissions are taken into account, i.e. emissions from the vehicle itself. In the future, it is expected that are larger share of emissions will originate from extraction, production, and distribution of fuels, i.e. in the well to tank (WTT) part of the chain. Examples are electric vehicles, which do not emit CO₂, whereas emissions from the production of the electricity they use could be substantial.

ECN has studied the possibility to use emissions from the entire chain (i.e. well to wheel, WTW) as a basis for taxing passenger vehicles. It turns out that such a system is favourable for selected alternative fuels, notably biofuels and green gas. Although WTW-based systems have certain benefits, some administrative tricks would have to be applied to make them feasible.

Client:      Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment
Contact:   Bas van Bree
Website:  http://www.ecn.nl/publicaties/ECN-E--11-038

The four representatives of ECN (Policy Studies) at COP17, Stefan Bakker, Xander van Tilburg, Laura Würtenberger and myself, may deep in their hearts still hope that a strong second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol accepted by all would be agreed in Durban, and implemented. But while in Durban, we worked from the premise that a top-down deal including all relevant countries would be very unlikely. The Kyoto Protocol implementation has taught us that a legally binding treaty is no guarantee for compliance. The long negotiations and the delay of a compromise in Durban only confirmed this.

Hence the agenda of ECN researchers at COP17 was pragmatic. Our aim was to find ways of reducing emissions in the absence of a global deal on emission reductions and a global carbon market. Many countries are interested in sustainable development, with or without an international agreement. How can such willingness be used for the benefit of preventing climate change? In which sectors can emissions be reduced with co-benefits? And to the extent that  the UN climate negotiations do offer instruments; how can they be implemented?

One of the topics ECN is particularly active on is technology development and transfer. Not mentioned in the Kyoto Protocol, this topic has risen to be one of the fields of negotiation since the Bali Climate Change Conference in 2007. However, as the bulk of the negotiating and research attention goes to pledges or commitments for emission reductions and to the Green Climate Fund, technology remains slightly shielded from the turmoil in negotiations around the other themes. However, a Technology Mechanism is slowly emerging and Durban agreed on its governance.

ECN was able to contribute to sketching an outline of how the Technology Mechanism could work. As we work a lot on energy technology, we like to think that we know what we are talking about in this field. We speak up in discussions on enhancing technology development, working with the private sector and on the policy and social environment in which technologies can be made to happen. These are all aims of the Technology Mechanism, which could achieve quite a lot on both development and climate change without the resistance put up by a centralised, top-down process. A side-event on these aspects, organised by ECN together with the University of Sussex on December 7th, was well-attended.

COP17 was more than a negotiation process. It was also a platform for companies, agencies, research organizations and NGOs to present their work and their thinking, and to identify how they can serve the process better. This is exactly what we did in Durban. It is a slow process, but we are not out of ideas!

Contact:           Heleen de Coninck

Nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) can help developing countries on a low-carbon development path. These can be supported by developed countries and are considered to be a promising climate mechanism for the transport sector. The TRANSfer project, funded by the IKI programme of the German Ministry of Environment and implemented by GIZ in collaboration with ECN, aims to develop NAMA proposals in three countries and develop a handbook for policy makers.

In Indonesia, the TRANSfer project intends to develop an urban transport programme as a first supported pilot NAMA, likely to be implemented in three stages: developing the framework and capacity building, implementation in pilot-cities, and full scale implementation in Indonesia. These ideas build on concrete activities on advancing urban transport defined in the national action plan for climate change mitigation (RAN-GRK) in Indonesia, and could contribute to achieving its voluntary target of 26-41% below business as usual in 2020. In the coming months, the project team and the Indonesian Ministry of Transport will further develop the idea and draft the NAMA proposal for international support. 

Client:       European Commission
Contact:    Stefan Bakker
Website:   http://www.transferproject.org/

ECN Policy Studies recently completed a study entitled “Paving the way for Low-Carbon Devel-opment Strategies”. The study finds that the process of developing an LCDS is at least as important as the strategy document itself, and that low-carbon development should ideally be treated as a continuous process.

International and institutional support for developing an LCDS requires flexibility, patience and should be tailored to the specific (national) context. Low-carbon development planning does not have strict prerequisites and can be initiated at any time.

However, LCDS is not a fast-win; it is essential to manage expectations and aim for long-term results!

Contact:    Xander van Tilburg
Website:   http://www.ecn.nl/publicaties/ECN-E--11-059

Lost in the land of the energy transition? ECN is offering a travel guide for policy makers: Tracking and paving the way. ‘With this guide, we want to give answers to the questions that we are never asked’, says Marc Londo of ECN Policy Studies, author of the guide together with Michiel Hekkenberg. ‘Clients usually ask us to do a quantitative analysis to get a better grip on a dossier. But this policy field is much more complicated and full of pitfalls that policy makers can easily tumble into. For instance, the original goal of policy sometimes moves out of sight. In that case we work out the right solution for the wrong problem.’

Instead of focusing on the numbers, this travel guide sketches the outlines: what are current developments in certain themes and what do policy makers need to take into account to effectively steer towards a transition to cleaner energy?

Contact:    Marc Londo
Website:   http://www.ecn.nl/nl/nieuwsbrief/nederlands/2011/oktober/reisgids-voor-beleidsmakers/

Symposium by ECN and PBL on energy and climate policy
Friday 9 December 2011, the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and the Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) organised a symposium entitled ‘A sustainable energy supply: millstone or potential diamond? Six speakers held presentations, followed by a panel discussion.

The first speaker was Marck Dierickx of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation. He explained the viewpoint of the Dutch cabinet with regard to the European Roadmap for energy. This European roadmap for energy elaborates on the Roadmap ‘Towards a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050’. The Dutch cabinet opts for a cost-efficient roll-out of renewable energy by means of the Renewable Energy Incentivisation Scheme SDE+ to meet the EU target in 2020. For the longer term, however, emphasis will be put on promoting innovation through top sector policy rather than through a continued roll-out of the SDE+ scheme. Moreover, the Netherlands wants to focus on CO₂ emission reduction as a main objective, targeting an intermediate objective for the EU of 40% in 2030. The Netherlands is also in favour of further harmonisation of European policy for renewable energy.

Contact:    Ton van Dril
Website:   http://www.ecn.nl/nl/units/ps/themas/nationaal-energie-en-klimaatbeleid/symposium/

The Dutch national government has made agreements with companies, organizations and other governments about sustainability projects: for example, projects for energy savings or renewable energy. By now, 59 of these ‘Green Deals’ have been signed. PBL and ECN have estimated the additional effect of these 59 ‘Green Deals’ compared to the evaluation for the ‘Motie Halsema’.

Because of the aim to remove existing barriers in legislation, finance and coordination, it is likely that the share of renewable energy will end up higher within the bandwidth of 9-12% projected in the evaluation for the Motie Halsema. However, it is nearly impossible that the Green Deals will close the gap to the European target for renewable energy of 14%, because the necessary financial means (on top of the yearly available 1,4 billion euro) are not provided. 

The emission of greenhouse gases not covered by the EU CO₂ emission trading will end up slightly lower in the bandwidth of 93 to 109 Megaton. In the evaluation for the Motie Halsema, it was already concluded that, with this bandwidth, the Netherlands are on track to reach the EU target for these greenhouse gases (indicatively, 105 Megaton). By implementing the Green Deals reaching the target will become more likely. Besides these effects on the medium-term (until 2020) some Green Deals can contribute to the further development of innovative technologies, such as electric cars and smart grids.

Client:       The Dutch House of Representatives
Contact:    Wouter Wetzels
Website:   http://www.ecn.nl/publicaties/ECN-E--11-060

Following the example set by the Dutch pulp and paper industry who designed a roadmap on a sustainable business for their sector, the governmental organization AgencyNL closely cooperates with several Dutch industrial to design roadmaps for them as well. The Dutch basic metals industry considers the use of renewable energy as a very attractive route to strengthen the position of their sector. ECN was requested to contribute to the their roadmap by providing an overview of costs and benefits of electricity-generating renewable energy sources to 2030 and to review a new subsidy system.

Results of this research show that until 2020, apart from profitable conditions for onshore wind and co-firing of biomass, the production costs of renewable electricity are higher than the elec-tricity price, resulting in higher costs than benefits. Though uncertainty increases, extrapolation of the results shows that for the period 2020-2030 the production costs of onshore wind will be lower than the expected electricity price. Until that time, subsidies will remain necessary to bridge the gap between costs and benefits. A successful switch to renewable electricity depends on these subsidies and their conditions.

Using scenario modeling, a new subsidy concept as proposed by some companies, was analyzed. Conditions at which this concept is favorable, are described extensively in the report.

Client:       Vereniging Nederlandse Metallurgische Industrie (VNMI) and their members
Contact:    Arjan Plomp and Stefan Luxembourg
Website:   http://www.ecn.nl/publicaties/default.aspx?nr=ECN-E--11-031 

Together with NL Agency, ECN has compared several cogeneration and heat pump technologies. Our report discusses the implications for CO₂ emissions, energy use and costs of the different heat generation technologies.

Some conclusions are:

• There is no level playing field for CHP and heat pumps regarding energy taxes. Heat  pumps are taxed more heavily. This is the result of tax exemptions for CHP and the fact that households are taxed more for electricity than for natural gas.
• Small scale CHP causes larger CO₂ emissions of the sectors outside of the EU emission trading scheme. The total CO₂ emission goes up as well, while the use of heat pumps decreases the CO₂ emissions.
• In dwellings, the water-water heat pump performs best of all technologies on CO₂ emissions and primary energy. However, the yearly costs are the highest. The investments needed for hybrid heat pumps are lower.
• Of the technologies under study for the services sector, shallow geothermal energy (in Dutch: ‘WKO’) performs best on CO₂, energy and costs, provided the building has a sufficiently high cooling demand.

Client:       Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment NL
Contact:    Wouter Wetzels
Website:   http://www.ecn.nl/units/ps/themes/energy-efficiency/warmteopwekking/

The full list of publications can be found at: 
http://www.ecn.nl/publicaties/Default.aspx?pu=bs&yr=2011.