In forty years’ time, Europe will be able to meet half its electricity needs from solar cells and wind turbines. “In order to achieve this, there will have to be a massive increase in the capacity of the European high-voltage grid and smart medium- and low-voltage networks will need to be developed for local use,” says Frans Nieuwenhout of ECN’s Policy Studies.

Along with his colleagues from Energy Production, Networks and Markets, Nieuwenhout gave a second opinion on a study conducted by KEMA and the British Imperial College into the future European electricity network. The study is part of Roadmap 2050, a report from the European Climate Foundation (ECF). According to the report, by 2050 Europe will be able to generate all its electricity with no CO₂ emissions, without any increase in the cost per kilowatt hour (see Remko's policy article). This report was compiled by a European consortium of knowledge institutes, including ECN, with the cooperation of companies from the energy sector and environmental organisations.
Nieuwenhout explains ECF’s idea: “During windy periods in the winter, the wind turbines in the Netherlands and the surrounding countries generate large amounts of electricity. However, conventional electricity power stations lack flexibility, which means they cannot always be adjusted to reduce energy production. As a result, the wind turbines are not used to their best advantage. The idea involves running the turbines and supplying any excess electricity to countries in southern Europe. Likewise, Mediterranean countries produce an excess of electricity from solar energy in the summer which they can sell in northern Europe when the wind turbines are less productive.”

In the future, the wind, sun and hydro rich area's in Europe must be connected in order to exchange their power, according to ECF.

This calls for additional transport capacity within Europe, because the more powerful the European grid is, the easier it is to distribute any local excesses over a large area. For example, France and Spain are now connected by high-voltage cables with a joint capacity of 2000 MW. According to the ECF study, this will need to be increased to 48,000 MW. “This could be achieved by means of high-voltage cables through the Pyrenees, or even better by installing undersea cables in the Bay of Biscay, although this would be significantly more expensive,” says Nieuwenhout.

Losses during transport
When electricity is transported over a long distance, energy is lost, especially in the case of alternating current. “For distances of more than 100 km, it is best to switch to direct current. For example, there is a 600-km long direct-current cable running between Norway and the Netherlands. This will need to be replicated elsewhere. Of course, the transmission of electricity across long distances increases its cost, but not by very much since the transport costs using high-voltage cables make up only a few percent of the total costs. Most of the costs involved are in generation, local distribution and taxation.
Nieuwenhout and his colleagues adopted a critical stance to one of the results from the ECF study: the claim that the cost of electricity would not increase if a greater proportion were generated from wind and solar energy. “This seemed to us to be quite a remarkable finding, but on closer inspection it does seem to be reasonable. After all, the cost of electricity from turbines based inland is already quite close to that of conventional electricity. Subsidies are still required, but much less than was previously the case.” It is also worth asking to what extent the price of electricity from gas- and coal-fired power stations is actually realistic, in view of the impact of CO₂ emissions on the environment. Nieuwenhout: “The current price set for CO₂ emissions is 15 euros per tonne, which is rather on the low side. If the emissions price were to more effectively reflect the environmental impact of CO₂, it would be much higher and conventional electricity would be at least as expensive as electricity from land-based wind turbines.” For the moment at least, electricity from wind turbines is more expensive and is still significantly dependent on subsidy.

Smart grids
In local electricity networks, there will be higher peaks in supply and demand in the future as a result of the fluctuating supply from solar and wind energy. The changing demands for energy as a result of the introduction of electric cars and heat pumps might also contribute to these peaks. “What this calls for is a smart grid that can better coordinate supply and demand for electricity. This is actually less easy to achieve than the extension of the European high-voltage network. In the future, variable electricity prices will need to be used in order to provide incentives for electricity users to charge their electric vehicles later, for example at night. In order to achieve this, smart electricity meters will be required that are capable of keeping track of the purchase of energy and the current energy price every quarter of an hour.”
This information will enable people to adjust their energy consumption and limit the costs of electricity. This will then effectively put a cap on the peaks in demand for electricity. Energy suppliers can also use this information in order to cater more effectively for demand at all times. The Lower House of the Dutch Parliament has voted against the compulsory installation of these kinds of meters because of the threat to people’s privacy. “But if people can decide for themselves whether they should install a smart meter and can benefit from doing so, they will probably easily make the switch. Their information can remain private if the energy suppliers make the data in each street or transformer station anonymous,” suggests Nieuwenhout.
Even better of course is the option of automatic control for cars, refrigerators and heat pumps. An electronic box can be used to calculate how energy consumption can best be distributed over time, without causing any inconvenience to people. For this, ECN has developed the PowerMatcher software program [http://www.powermatcher.net/] that can be used to control equipment. “There are currently several pilot projects underway, including in Hoogkerk near Groningen, and the results are looking promising”, says Nieuwenhout.

Contact
Frans Nieuwenhout
ECN Policy Studies Enrgy Production, Networks and Markets
Tel.: +31 (0)22 456 48 49
E-mail: Frans Nieuwenhout 

Text: Erik te Roller

Info
Possible improvements in the direction of a socially optimal outcome of market and network integration of distributed generation (DG) and electricity production from renewable energy sources (RES-E) in Europe.

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