A substantial reduction of well-to-wheel CO2 emissions is achievable if the Netherlands and Europe vigorously pursue innovation. In 2020 the well-to-wheel emissions of road traffic can be reduced by approximately 6 Mton compared with 2005 (see Figure S.1). Around 2030 the level that prevailed in 1990 will be achieved. After 2030, scenario 1, which builds upon the conventional combustion engine in combination with biofuels and CNG, will offer little prospect of a far greater reduction of emissions. Transition to hydrogen (scenario 2) can produce an even greater reduction than the one to electricity (scenario 3). This potential depends on how the energy carriers are produced and on the expected market share. With greater sustainability of the electricity sector combined with a strong improvement of the range of the vehicle, it will be possible for electric transport to achieve a reduction similar to the one with hydrogen. Hydrogen might have greater emission reduction potential but will require a more far-reaching system change.
The table below shows the reduction potential of each transition path, together with bandwidths.Transition path 2040 | Potential reduction (Mton) |
ICT | 3 |
Biofuels
(margin depends on share
in fuel demand) | 3 - 5½ |
Hydrogen
(margin depend on method
of producing hydrogen) | 13 (3 - 14) |
Electric vehicles and
plug-in hybrids
(margine depends on method of producing electricity)
| 7½ (2½ - 11) |
