The hydrogen hype of the first few years of the new millennium is well and truly over. So, are car manufacturers still working on hydrogen projects or have fuel cells been put on ice? Bart Hoevenaars, researcher at the Hydrogen and Clean Fossil Fuels Unit, wondered what the answer to this question was. He wanted to know how the manufacturers rated the chances for such vehicles to become successful. Together with his colleages at the Policy Studies Unit, he also studied the petrol refilling behaviour of Dutch motorists. “Nearly 50% of all motorists believe that if one out of three refilling stations sold hydrogen, this would be enough coverage to get anywhere in the country.” 

During the 2010 Winter Olympic Games, twenty hydrogen-powered fuel cell buses provided transport for the competitors in and around Vancouver, Canada. There were also eight Chevrolet Equinox hydrogen-powered fuel cell taxis.  A total of seven hydrogen refilling stations were opened in the area. Two years previously, at the Olympic Summer Games in Beijing, sixteen Chinese-built Volkswagen Passats with fuel cells under their bonnets had been driving around. Apparently, the world of sports provides the ideal venue for presenting a technological achievement: vehicles that are both clean and quiet. The whole world took notice. But, where do we go from here?
Introducing a new form of personal transport on the market is no easy matter. Manufacturers need to build vehicles that are affordable and reliable and meet the safety requirements. At the same time, an infrastructure of garages and refilling stations is required in order for motorists to move around freely. All parties are holding their breath, so nothing happens: a chicken-and-egg problem. Consumers purchase cars if fuel is on sale at a sufficient number of locations. Fuel suppliers open sales points if there is sufficient demand for their product. Hoevenaars: “We tried to analyse this problem by developing a cost analysis.

Infrastructure gets little media coverage
The media tend to focus on the technical development of alternative cars. However, developments in the field of infrastructure are at least as important. For example, what kind of problems do suppliers of hydrogen encounter in producing and distributing their product? Hoevenaars: “It turned out there was remarkably little public information about the refilling behaviour of motorists. In collaboration with the Policy Studies Unit, we conducted a survey of 2,900 families in which we asked them about their current refilling behaviour. It would be a good idea for the introduction of hydrogen as a new fuel to match the consumers' existing behaviour patterns. Does a motorist prefer to refill up along the motorway, or simply at the next refilling station? Or, does the motorist always pick a particular brand and is prepared to take a detour to do that? Interesting things come to light.”

Refilling behaviour of 2900 Dutch motorists, from a survey performed in 2009 (illustration ECN).

Among those surveyed, 80% filled up in a built-up area or along an access route to a motorway. The survey also covered the point in time motorists choose to fill up: immediately after starting out. Eighty per cent of motorists fill up within ten minutes after departing, 58% even do this within the first 0 to 5 minutes. This information may seem trivial, but Hoevenaars knows better: “Combining this information with residential centres, we can develop a much more specific plan to build an adequate network of hydrogen sales points in the Netherlands. Through strategic placement of refilling stations on the outskirts of cities and along motorways, hydrogen fuel can be made available to a large percentage of all motorists.”
For consumers, little will change. The amount of time required for refuelling is comparable to that for petrol, diesel or LPG. According to Hoevenaars, the refilling stations can be fitted out without the need for any yet unreleased NASA rocket technology. “Negotiations are taking place at a European level with regard to the locations at which hydrogen refuelling points will be introduced, but it is still too early to say which locations will be chosen. Various indicators were considered, like earlier pilot projects and local political support.”

Fuel cells that are 100 kilograms lighter
We have now looked at the plans for the infrastructure, but what have car manufacturers done so far? Hoevenaars: “A number of car manufacturer surveys indicate that fuel cell cars will probably be ready for the market by 2015.” This is not a vague promise, because so far these manufacturers have never failed to meet their targets. The American Department of Energy sets the standard for the life of third-generation fuel cells at 5,000 hours, which is supposed to be achieved in 2015. One manufacturer (3M) even claims to have generated 7,300 hours worth of current in 2009 using a fuel cell. Recently, it became possible to double the pressure of fuel cell tanks in cars to 700 bars. This means that more hydrogen is available on board making the range of fuel call cars equivalent to that of modern petrol-powered cars.
Even individual manufacturers sometimes report spectacular advances. Recently, car manufacturer General Motors surprised observers when the company presented its fifth-generation fuel cells. Compared to fourth-generation fuel cells, the weight of the entire unit has been reduced by 100 kilograms, while the unit takes up 50% less space (and is thus comparable to a four-cylinder petrol engine). Similar advances are being made by Daimler, Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Hyundai/Kia, with Ford and Volkswagen following in their tracks. 

Battery or hydrogen?
Sometimes the development of the car of the future seems to be a race between fuel cells and batteries that can have only one winner. According to Hoevenaars, however, a situation where both are used is more likely. “In order to give electric cars a long range, you need to put in a lot of batteries. The process is self-defeating, because for a heavier car to achieve the same range you will have to add even more batteries. The car industry believes that battery-powered cars are more suited to the market for custom cars used for commuting. Larger family cars used to cover longer distances on motorways seem destined to be powered by fuel cells.”

Contact
Bart Hoevenaars
ECN Hydrogen and Clean Fossil Fuels / Hydrogen Transitions & Infrastructure
Tel.: +31 (0)22 456 45 45
E-mail Bart Hoevenaars / Marcel Weeda    

Information
Trends in Hydrogen Vehicles 

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