A year ago, at the Copenhagen summit, the industrialised countries promised to provide money, technology and expertise to developing countries in order for them to contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. What is the best way to implement this effort and how can we measure the effects? These have become critical questions in the climate negotiations. Stefan Bakker of the ECN Policy Studies Unit is helping to find the answers.

Ten billion Euros annually until 2012, growing to 100 billion in 2020: This is what the industrialized nations promised the developing countries at the 2009 Climate Change Conference in order to contribute to the local reduction of global warming. If this is actually sufficient, or whether money will simply be shifted from regular development aid to ‘climate aid’ and whether the amounts promised will actually be delivered, is still an open question. In any case, it would seem that this promise represents a step in the right direction. After all, Western aid is needed to steer the economic development of less wealthy countries into a more sustainable direction. Because sustainability is the keyword: reduction of CO₂ emissions is only attractive for developing countries if Western funds also support objectives such as sustainable industrialization, cleaner air, higher employment levels and securing energy supplies.

Stronger focus on sustainable transport
On behalf of the Asian Development Bank, Stefan Bakker of the ECN Policy Studies Unit investigated how climate aid funds might be deployed efficiently. One of the recommendations is to pay more attention to setting up sustainable transport flows. “Now is a good time to do that,” says Bakker. “Road traffic in developing countries is growing at lightning speed – more than a thousand cars are added every day. Each additional car means an increase in CO₂ emissions and air pollution.” On a global scale, road transport already accounts for 14% of the greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. Nevertheless, only 0.5% of the efforts to limit CO₂ emissions through emissions trading go into this sector. Bakker feels this is hopelessly inadequate. He calls for a drastic increase in this share in order to bring it in line with the transport sector's contribution to the overall emissions of greenhouse gases.

A close-knit network of bus lines brings many Columbians from the suburbs to the main cities (Photo: Expreso Palmira).

Well-balanced policy
There are all kinds of ways to make transport more sustainable, especially in large cities. One possibility, for example, would be to set up efficient public transport systems: large, clean and fast buses that have their own bus lanes and are thus able to carry large numbers of people efficiently. Transport systems like this already work well in Columbia, Bangkok and Jakarta. Other possibilities include parking policies discouraging car use, the construction of cycle paths or road pricing. A well-balanced package of policies with support from wealthy countries can steer passenger transport in urban areas into a sustainable direction during this critical phase. This would not only mean lower CO₂ emissions, but also fewer traffic deaths, less smog, fewer gridlocks and better transport for everyone.

The UNDP is working on NAMA's in Turkey at a workshop (Photo: New Horizons).

Measurable and verifiable
Commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment (formerly the Ministry of Housing, Regional Development and the Environment), the ECN Policy Studies Unit investigated how the effects of measures to reduce CO₂ emissions in developing countries (‘Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions’ or NAMAs) can be monitored. Bakker emphasizes the importance of this effort. “First of all, it is about restoring trust between developing countries and the industrialized world. At the moment distrust still prevails. This is due mostly to the industrial countries not making good on the promises made at Kyoto, but it is also not clear how climate aid is actually spent in developing countries. Without trust, it will be very difficult to reach real global agreements on climate-related measures. In order to rebuild a stable coalition, each party’s contribution to solving the climate problem needs to be measurable and verifiable.”

Methodological reference points
Suppose  a country decides that petrol should contain 10% biofuels. How do you verify that the fuel sold actually does contain 10% ethanol? How do you weigh the costs against the benefits? And, how do you quantify the reduction in CO₂ emissions that the measure produces? Or, imagine that a country decides to give every family an energy-saving light bulb for free. What reference points do you have if you wish to calculate of the resulting reduction in CO₂ emissions? Based on many years of experience in studying the effects of policies, ECN was able to propose a methodological basis for answering such questions. 

Bureaucratic monsters
One thing is clear: monitoring of measures and their effects may be necessary, but it should not be overdone. “Too much emphasis on verification creates bureaucratic monsters that are too expensive and too complicated. This would have a paralysing effect and could actually hinder the implementation of effective measures. If one accepts a certain degree of uncertainty, it is possible to monitor the measures taken by developing countries using simple means.

Cancun
ECN's findings contribute to a better understanding of emissions monitoring – an important issue at the last climate summit, which was held in Cancun. A delegation from the ENC Policy Studies Unit has attended the summit to give presentations and organize a number of side events. In addition to his work at ECN, Stefan Bakker has begun a Ph.D. study at the University of Twente, where he is currently investigating how urban transport can be made more sustainable in developing countries and how the effects of the measures can be measured.

Contact
Stefan Bakker
ECN Policy Studies / International Enerby and Climate Policy
Tel.: +31 (0)22 456 42 64
E-mail: Stefan Bakker   

Text: Mariette Huisjes

Info
The Climate instruments for the transport sector
Monitoring emissions and actions in the post-2012 climate regime  

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