Electricity and hydrogen have a major role to play in substantially reducing CO₂ emissions by vehicles in the years ahead, according to a study by the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) into how sustainable innovation in road transport can help to achieve Dutch climate policy targets.

ECN analysed innovations in fuels and drive trains, identified their climate effects and described the consequences for government policy. Some technologies, such as hybrid vehicles, first-generation biofuels, intelligent in-vehicle ICT applications and CNG (as a predecessor of green gas) are already mature enough for large-scale market introduction. Unfortunately, these technologies allow insufficient reduction of CO₂ emissions in the longer term. Moreover, in addition to their limited potential, first-generation biofuels have some highly undesirable side-effects.
In the long term (2030-2040) there will be a need for technology with zero or near-zero emissions. In addition to energy efficiency and second-generation biofuels, there are two innovations ideally suited to pursuing this goal:
- Hydrogen-driven vehicles, particularly fuel cell cars
- Electric-driven vehicles, including plug-in hybrid cars

Reduce dependence on oil
It is too early to say which of these two innovations will ultimately dominate the market; this might become clear around 2015. To assure sustainability it is essential to produce electricity or hydrogen in a low-carbon manner, for example by using sustainable grown biomass or by generating electricity from solar or wind power. If fossil fuels such as coal and gas are used, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) will be necessary. Although it is not possible to pick a winner, it is essential to continue developing both innovations on parallel tracks to ensure the availability of alternatives when the limits of further enhancement of the classical internal combustion engine come into sight. This is important not only for the climate, but also for reducing dependence on oil.
Hydrogen and electric driven vehicles are still in the demonstration phase and will require system innovations with coordinated policy on several fronts.
European policy is crucially important given the scale involved. Within the course set by Europe, ECN advises the Dutch government to take strategic decisions that best serve national interests. There are a number of niches, such as innovative buses and ICT, in which the Netherlands can be a frontrunner. The Netherlands can also cooperate with other countries to exert influence on European policy, in such fields as working out certification for the renewability of biofuels or framing long-term standards for CO₂ emissions by vehicles, thus giving innovative solutions an extra boost. The government must also coordinate the establishment of an infrastructure for vehicles powered by hydrogen and electricity.

Emission reductions achievable
The study shows that if the Netherlands and Europe rigorously pursue innovation there will be the prospect of a substantial reduction of ‘well to wheel’ emissions of CO₂. The 1990 level will then be achievable around 2030. Coen Hanschke, one of the authors of the report, said: ‘Road traffic will grow by roughly 95% between 1990 and 2040, or almost double. Far-reaching emission reduction through innovation on various fronts will make it possible to absorb the growth without any increase in well-to-wheel emissions.’ He added: ‘In 2020 the main reduction will not yet be coming from hydrogen or electricity, even with an ambitious development path, because 95% of all cars will still have a conventional combustion engine. So the focus for 2020 needs to be directed towards innovative technologies already available, like hybrids and biofuels. If there is a successful breakthrough in hydrogen or electric driven vehicles, the market share after 2020 will quickly increase, with a 20% share in the light vehicle fleet likely to be attainable in 2030. Thanks to the growing share of these innovations in newly purchased vehicles – between 30% and 40% by that time – they will make an even bigger contribution towards reducing emissions and make the ambitious emission reductions achievable.’

Contact
Coen Hanschke, Policy Studies Researcher
Telephone: 0224-564224
hanschke@remove-this-part-ecn.nl

Info
The Dutch report is downloadable here.
Information with a graph and table can be found in the annex.