Abstract
In the Netherlands market players maintain the balance in the electricity grid. By law these parties are responsible for balancing power production and power consumption in a set of grid connections, the so-called programme. Due to the variable wind resource production from wind energy inherently leads to imbalance. Will grid balance now benefit from wind power forecasts?
In order to find an answer ECN made an advanced wind power forecasting method. It was found that the production versus imbalance ratio is 3:1 when these forecasts are used. By employing a less advanced method this ratio is 3:1.3. This implies wind power forecasts will reduce imbalance (as compared to less advanced alternatives) but do not avoid imbalance (which is required given the responsibility). Given the Dutch price mechanism with a financial penalty for those introducing imbalance, imbalance costs will reduce but not disappear if wind power forecasts are used.
Evaluated from the position of grid balance as well as a market player wind power forecasts are advantageous but not effective. In order to avoid imbalance and imbalance costs market players with wind power in the Netherlands have to use other instruments too.