This website presents the wind power forecasting method of ECN. For three locations in the Netherlands the actual short-term predictions of wind or wind power are shown, as well as predictions from the past. In addition the website contains information on the background, a workshop and a report.
- Short-term wind forecasting - A meteo mast with three heights near Petten
- Short-term wind power forecasting - A wind turbine near Medemblik
- Short-term wind power forecasting - A wind farm near Numansdorp
- Background - Technology, accuracy and projects (Dutch)
- Workshop "Weather forecast for wind power" - Programme and presentations (Dutch)
- Final report wind power prediction - Abstract
The short-term predictions are made by using the forecasting method of ECN and by employing output from an atmospheric model operated by KNMI. Observations originate from ECN (meteo mast) and WEOM (wind turbine and wind farm).
A wind turbine is a source of imbalance. When forecasts are used, the ratio between production and imbalance is 3:1. Without predictions imbalance would be 30% larger. The benefit of forecasting therefore is a reduction of imbalance, and, consequently, of imbalance costs. Moreover forecasting decreases the probability of shortage. As a result wind power can be scheduled with a large likelyhood of delivery. All this implies there are three reasons to include forecasting into daily operation.
Determine the financial benefit of forecasting wind power production, and find out what is needed in order to include wind power forecasting into daily operation.
Contact
Arno Brand, tel: (+31) 224 56 4775, mail: brand@ecn.nl or
Koen Kok, tel: (+31) 224 56 4451, mail: j.kok@ecn.nl..
How to refer
Information on this website may be used provided the source is acknowledged: Energy research Centre of the Netherlands.
Acknowledgement
The website and the forecasting method were made in the framework of the project AVDE (funded by ECN) and the project VoDEGO (funded by SDE).